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2021/2022 Cyclone season Australia Share  Email this topic  LinkBack Topic URL  Retweet this Topic  Share Topic on Google+  Like this Topic  Share on Facebook  Digg this Topic  Reddit this Topic  Share on Tumblr Options  Watch this topic  Print this topic » Normal Threaded

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crikey		#21 Posted : Thursday, 27 January 2022 2:22:08 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 292 Location: Country Victorian Thanks: 580 times Was thanked: 503 time(s) in 194 post(s)		Thanks for that Vanuatu link 28deg. That is a fabulous synoptic to view the coral sea and your coastline. I will use that for sure. Access still has a tropical low forming in the coral by Monday But it is a small intense squat cell that will stay out in the Coral and transition SE. The monsoon trough straddled over the far north mainland looks the greatest threat. News is reporting 280ml in a day close to Townsville yesterday. 381 mm in stony creek Townsville s west. More rain on the forecast http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/synoptic_col.shtml Access still forecasting inland monsoonal low for WA. Only change is that the low stays inland and likely tracking south I don’t think there are major roads or towns in this remote area However what interests me if the intensity it may develop without being over ocean http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml
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28degrees		#22 Posted : Thursday, 27 January 2022 4:59:10 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 937 Location: Chillagoe Thanks: 1546 times Was thanked: 526 time(s) in 351 post(s)		Originally Posted by: crikey Thanks for that Vanuatu link 28deg. It's a good site that one. In the Season, I look several times a day. You start to see the cloud starting to get that slight little curve about it. It warned me of Yasi, about two weeks before. No idea why I thought it would come this way... I hardly knew anything about the weather back then, except the radar, the Vanuatu map, and cyclone tracks. That was when I joined Weatherzone. Not that I could hold a technical conversation these days. That monsoon trough is too far below us. I suffer ingrained FOMO, and we are. We've been getting passing showers mostly. So at least it's rain. EDIT: Vanuatu now has a Tropical Low. JTWC hasn't designated anything yet. https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html?tropical Edited by user Thursday, 27 January 2022 5:01:38 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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crikey		#23 Posted : Friday, 28 January 2022 2:29:40 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 292 Location: Country Victorian Thanks: 580 times Was thanked: 503 time(s) in 194 post(s)		Yasi started my interest in weather 28deg. I got obsessed for years and delved in quite deeply. Even started a blog. My interest comes and goes these days. Access has made an upgrade on the coral sea tropical low Off the nth qld coast. Diameter still small but positioning much closer to the coastline. Also intensity has increased. Wonder if Bom have this on their watch list yet? http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml The inland tropical low still in access forecast. It comes quite close to Broome.
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28degrees		#24 Posted : Friday, 28 January 2022 2:42:09 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 937 Location: Chillagoe Thanks: 1546 times Was thanked: 526 time(s) in 351 post(s)		Originally Posted by: crikey Access has made an upgrade on the coral sea tropical low That's looking interesting. Vanuatu has dropped the T from the TL. If we get another seriously big one in the north, I'm hoping a few people will come out of the woodwork. It's a pity we all got dispersed.
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FNQ Bunyip		#25 Posted : Saturday, 29 January 2022 5:46:02 AM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC) Posts: 536 Location: Daintree Thanks: 350 times Was thanked: 532 time(s) in 360 post(s)		Watching and waiting for a wet season. A small system would do, we don't want another Yassi any time soon. Cheers
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1 user thanked FNQ Bunyip for this useful post.		28degrees on 29/01/2022(UTC)
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28degrees		#26 Posted : Saturday, 29 January 2022 6:52:43 AM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 937 Location: Chillagoe Thanks: 1546 times Was thanked: 526 time(s) in 351 post(s)		Is this Low over Vanuatu getting a bit of a slow swirl up?
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snowbunny		#27 Posted : Sunday, 30 January 2022 9:35:46 AM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 26/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 122 Location: Travel but often NSW Thanks: 168 times Was thanked: 90 time(s) in 53 post(s)		BOM cyclone watch acknowledging the tropical low in the coral sea off the Nth coast. They suggest the low is likely to intensify next week and current tracking is east away from the coast. http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml Access sees the intensification happening a little sooner and suggests tracking will be east and then south on transition to mid latitudes.
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1 user thanked snowbunny for this useful post.		28degrees on 2/02/2022(UTC)
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crikey		#28 Posted : Sunday, 30 January 2022 9:43:21 AM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 292 Location: Country Victorian Thanks: 580 times Was thanked: 503 time(s) in 194 post(s)		It looks like a done and dusted cyclone for the east coast but if some high pressure rigging pushes north and keeps the ‘whirlpool’ in the lower equatorial latitudes the story could be extended.
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28degrees		#29 Posted : Sunday, 30 January 2022 11:18:47 AM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 937 Location: Chillagoe Thanks: 1546 times Was thanked: 526 time(s) in 351 post(s)		JTWC doesn't see it as a suspect yet... https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html?tropical I don't mind, as long as we keep getting this nice rain and cool weather out here.
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crikey		#30 Posted : Wednesday, 2 February 2022 1:10:47 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 292 Location: Country Victorian Thanks: 580 times Was thanked: 503 time(s) in 194 post(s)		JTWC has acknowledged the coral sea low as TC 09p They have classified it as code red which means it is expected to reach cyclone criteria in 24hrs https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html?tropical Access has this low tracking toward Vanuatu if me island grog’ is correct. The WA inland tropical low pops out Briefly to the ocean near Broome with some intensification on Friday but then pops back on land for a likely southerly transition http://www.bom.gov.au/au...chartSubmit=Refresh+View
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crikey		#31 Posted : Sunday, 6 February 2022 11:22:27 AM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 292 Location: Country Victorian Thanks: 580 times Was thanked: 503 time(s) in 194 post(s)		JTWC has downgraded tropical low in the coral sea. https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html?tropical BOM outlook says the low is in unfavourable conditions and will Move east out of BOM jurisdiction today http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
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FNQ Bunyip		#32 Posted : Sunday, 6 February 2022 2:28:26 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC) Posts: 536 Location: Daintree Thanks: 350 times Was thanked: 532 time(s) in 360 post(s)		Yeah, can't see any action in our backyard for the next little while :( Wonder what March and April will have in store for us? Cheers
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crikey		#33 Posted : Monday, 21 February 2022 1:40:06 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 292 Location: Country Victorian Thanks: 580 times Was thanked: 503 time(s) in 194 post(s)		Access model has some interest developing for tropical lows . One low forms south of the gulf on Friday 25th feb and migrates east into the coral sea just off shore of the far north coast. Intensification begins and looks like possible initiation of cyclogenesis. Note that is 7 days away. There is potential cyclone development off the NW WA coast during the same time period. A seed of interest has been sown. http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml
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1 user thanked crikey for this useful post.		28degrees on 21/02/2022(UTC)
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FNQ Bunyip		#34 Posted : Monday, 21 February 2022 3:28:18 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC) Posts: 536 Location: Daintree Thanks: 350 times Was thanked: 532 time(s) in 360 post(s)		Originally Posted by: crikey possible initiation of cyclogenesis. http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml How long have you been waiting to post that? and still it's all just good looking pictures on some models. A broad area of LOW in the north along a monsoon trough is all quite normal, not that you would know it of late. For any real action in the CS to be of concern we need westerly influence to push them back onto the coast, Most stuff the last couple of seasons just get sucked of to the E, SE to die a cold death in NZ. Bring it on, got some more drainage works to do and need good heavy stuff so I can get out in it and make the water go where I want. Cheers
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crikey		#35 Posted : Tuesday, 22 February 2022 2:13:18 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 292 Location: Country Victorian Thanks: 580 times Was thanked: 503 time(s) in 194 post(s)		Are you teasing me Bunyip😘 What’s wrong with fancy technical terms and colorful academic weather models? Access is looking ok for cyclone development much later in the week. The position of initiation in the coral sea is not too far south. Tick However the diameter of the low looks a bit average. I don’t think there has been a cyclone named in the coral in Boms jurisdiction this season? There outlook is expectant of some interest later in the week http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml Edited by user Tuesday, 22 February 2022 2:17:12 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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1 user thanked crikey for this useful post.		28degrees on 23/02/2022(UTC)
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crikey		#36 Posted : Thursday, 24 February 2022 11:06:11 AM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 292 Location: Country Victorian Thanks: 580 times Was thanked: 503 time(s) in 194 post(s)		Access has cancelled the TC in the far north coral . Nothing🤪 http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml Looking now to the NW of WA. Where Access has. A small tropical low forming west of Darwin on Sunday.
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FNQ Bunyip		#37 Posted : Thursday, 24 February 2022 3:39:47 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC) Posts: 536 Location: Daintree Thanks: 350 times Was thanked: 532 time(s) in 360 post(s)		Haha told ya.. Seen it so many times, all these great looking pictures and then nothing. Need to look for a real setup for the CS to give us an event. Just doesn't feel like a wet season at the mo. Cheers
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snowbunny		#38 Posted : Friday, 25 February 2022 2:10:02 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 26/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 122 Location: Travel but often NSW Thanks: 168 times Was thanked: 90 time(s) in 53 post(s)		BOM report of Possible Low west of Darwin. Forming a TC in the coming days and tracking south off shore of Wyndham. https://www.abc.net.au/n...line-nt-border/100860794
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crikey		#39 Posted : Saturday, 26 February 2022 12:03:38 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 292 Location: Country Victorian Thanks: 580 times Was thanked: 503 time(s) in 194 post(s)		I think the reason why Access has failed in its last 2 attempts to predict a cyclone is because the diameter of these rotations has been very small which leaves them vulnerable to changing unsuitable conditions for development.(There wind span has been small) The low near Darwin is also small and l suspect it will come to nothing much.
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snowbunny		#40 Posted : Monday, 28 February 2022 5:27:57 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 26/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 122 Location: Travel but often NSW Thanks: 168 times Was thanked: 90 time(s) in 53 post(s)		Ex cyclone Anika has landed on NW WA coast https://au.news.yahoo.co...et-hit-wa-024605324.html Cyclone starting with A ? Is this only the first cyclone for Australian zone?
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1 user thanked snowbunny for this useful post.		28degrees on 28/02/2022(UTC)
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