Hi guys, good to be here. Here are my thoughts regarding Wed/Thur:

Just doing the early morning model roundup and noticed that last night's EC run actually doesn't look too bad particularly for Thursday afternoon and evening? Not a great deal of instability as to be expected at this time of year but surprisingly there's enough moisture even in the lowers there to tap into ahead of the dryline (finally we get a little ridge set up across the Coral/Tasman Sea to provide this) so we could even see some surface based convection rather than just the high-based [censored]which looks more likely on Wednesday (though I think we will still see some surface based convection on Wednesday, just very isolated and probably dependent on cloud cover). ICON looks very similar to this as well.

Then there's GFS which looks very different for Thursday which has the upper low pushing NE too quickly, dragging the dryline and associated drier westerlies through to the coast by early Thursday morning.

Anyway, it's good to finally have something other than cold nights and clear skies to talk about.