Tomorrow, Sunday 26 October, is shaping up at this stage to have a good potential for storms in the afternoon. A lot of the models are in agreement with the potential and in the timing. The three big threats are possible if storms do develop and become severe, 1. Heavy rain, 2. Large Hail and 3. Strong winds. The only damper to the probability is what the morning will hold and the day shapes up like.

Not all places will see severe cells but please, if they develop, keep an eye to the sky and radar, and listen out for any warnings issued. There is the potential for a few days next week to bring storms so also keep an eye out for those too. I just did a quick look at Monday and it was showing potential as well.

I am a bit poor with time so I haven’t done a technical write up or shown all the reason behind it as yet. If I get time today, in the afternoon I’ll try and do that.

Below is the sounding from GFS and it looks not too bad. Heat is expected to be higher than the model is showing as well so that will fuel the storms.



Also the EC model



As I said I haven’t gone into big detail, but I have been keeping an eye on this system for the last 4 days and it has to this stage remained resolved to try and throw some storms at us and also the potential for some rain.