Over the past few days I’ve been closely tracking the model guidance for this coming Saturday. Each day’s GFS run has shown a gradual but steady improvement in the parameters that support storm development across Southeast Queensland and Northeast NSW.

To give everyone some context, I’ve included today’s Sounding for Brisbane, Dalby and Moree so I could triangulate the atmospheric condition.









I’ve looked at Monday through to Thursday, today and in doing so you can see how the setup has evolved rather than relying on a single snapshot.

What’s been consistent through the week:

The overall synoptic pattern has stayed supportive of convection — moisture return from the north, rising instability, and an upper trough approaching from the west.

CAPE values have climbed steadily, with inland areas now showing moderate to strong energy and coastal zones starting to catch up.

Wind shear and lapse rates have been trending in the right direction for organised cells, though low-level moisture has been the slower ingredient to respond.

Surface temperatures inland have nudged higher each day, while dew points have slowly improved, especially with recent rainfall adding to ground moisture.


GFS, EC, Icon and Access has all been agreement that some sort of storm system is highly likely at this stage as per the snapshot below









The cape values on GFS have been full of colour which has been absent for a very long time. This is the mornings run.



What this means:

At this stage, Saturday looks to have the potential for severe storms, particularly if the cap breaks during the afternoon. If that happens, the environment could support large hail, strong winds and heavy rainfall in some areas.

So basically I am still watching for small shifts in timing and surface moisture, which could make the difference between a moderate storm day and a volatile one. For now, it’s a day that deserves attention — not alarm — as the signals have been remarkably consistent for nearly a week.

If tomorrow’s runs keep trending this way, I’ll issue a “heads-up” post Friday afternoon, then a more detailed breakdown on Saturday morning if conditions still support it.

So I have held back from posting but have I kept a close eye on this set up. Sunday also has potential but just one day at a time. This could be a massive storm system but let us hope that it doesn’t eventuate. You can still have an explosive atmosphere but if capping is too strong, heating is too low or slow, or moisture is lacking in the lower levels then it could be one of those days that we may have dodged a bullet.