Just a heads up for today and Saturday.
Today (Friday) we’ve already seen the atmosphere starting to build over SE QLD and just over the NSW border.
The latest soundings show increasing moisture and instability, but the cap (warm layer aloft) has been holding things back a bit but with the latest soundings the cap has almost lifted with just 0.52°C.. That means storms could fire off quickly and it could still pack a punch with strong winds, heavy rain, and hail, some cells may become severe if everything comes together.
Tomorrow (Saturday) still looks to be the main day to watch. The models continue to show good ingredients for severe storms — plenty of surface moisture, stronger upper-level winds, and good wind shear to help storms rotate and organise.
There’s been a slight downgrade in some of the model strength, but not enough to write it off. It’s still a volatile setup if everything lines up at the right time.
The most likely outcomes are widespread showers and storms across SE QLD and NE NSW, with a few of those possibly becoming severe. Large hail and damaging winds are the main risks, with heavy rain possible under slower-moving cells.
Bottom line — Friday’s more of a “watch and see” day with the potential to produce storms and some severe, while Saturday is shaping up as “stay alert and stay weather-aware.” The ingredients are still there for a busy afternoon and evening if the cap breaks and the triggers fire. But there is a few things to watch for. How todays storms affect tomorrow. Overnight showers and showers tomorrow.
So please stay alert and listen for any warnings. The potential is there if everything comes together.
Technical snapshot
Some model frames (a few inland GFS runs) have shown lower CAPE in certain hours today (you saw values like ~385 J/kg in one inland plot), which is the only sign of a modest local downgrade in those snapshots.
However the coastal/metro column (Brisbane) is very moist (PW ~37 mm), with low LCLs and a strongly unstable profile from the morning sounding — that’s a major fuel source.
Capping is weaker than mid-week but still present in places; that means initiation is conditional — when/where the cap breaks will determine outcome.
Shear remains moderate and adequate for organised multicells and some discrete/rotating storms where low-level shear overlaps with high CAPE/low LCL.
Net: ingredients remain in place (moisture + energy + shear). A few runs show slightly less instability in limited areas, but the overall signal is still toward a volatile environment if the cap erodes.
It is hard trying to get your brain around everything when you have a migraine. Sorry if it is a bit over the place. The potential is there but we have to stay alert but not be overhyped. Stay safe and as once again, this is my take on the situation. Be prepared and keep an ear out and any eye to the sky and radar.
