Just a quick write up for today
After several days of model consistency, today’s model soundings confirm a highly unstable atmosphere across much of SE QLD, with subtle differences between inland and coastal locations that will shape how today unfolds.
Technical Summary
Brisbane: CAPE 2050 J/kg, LI –5.1°C, SWEAT 333, PW 37 mm — a humid and unstable profile, with a weak cap (CIN 38 J/kg) likely to give way later this afternoon as heating peaks. Low LCLs and good moisture depth point to efficient rainfall and hail production once convection begins.
Gympie: CAPE 2160 J/kg, LI –5.4°C, SWEAT 358 — even more unstable than Brisbane, with slightly drier air aloft and weaker inhibition (CIN 23 J/kg). Storm initiation should be easier here, with large hail, strong winds, and heavy rain the main risks.
Dalby: CAPE 1346 J/kg, LI –3.8°C, SWEAT 480 — slightly drier at low levels but still unstable. A strong surface trough and boundary interactions could trigger high-based storms that may produce downbursts or gusty winds before drifting east into richer moisture.
Wind shear overall remains moderate, supporting mainly multicell or organised storm structures, with isolated rotating updrafts possible where local boundaries interact.
To Put It Simply
The atmosphere today is very unstable and still primed.
Storms are most likely to fire inland through the early afternoon — around the Darling Downs, Gympie, and northern SEQ inland zones — before spreading east later in the day.
These storms may become severe, bringing large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. So please once again, these are my take on the potential.
So keep an eye to the sky and radar and listen for any warnings if storms develop and become severe. If you were impacted by the storms I hope you are safe and well, and sorry for any damages you may have suffered. Today should not be as wide spread and should be less severe as in the area impacted compared to yesterdays widespread path of destruction , so still stay vigilant just in case you are in the firing line.
I have also posted the LI and Cape values to show where storms may form today.
