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Posted by:
Weary
Posted:
Thursday, 8 January 2026 5:59:56 PM(UTC)
Latest from JTWC 28 if u still can’t get it
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.4S 152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 81 NM
NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING BUT ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C).
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SLIGHT HESITANCE ON 92P, WITH GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOWING POOR CONSOLIDATION WITH A BROADER WIND FIELD. IN CONTRAST,
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
92P IN THE SHORT TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
32 TO 37 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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