Last night was another warm humid night which was a bit unpleasant. These minimum temperatures over the last few years seem to be increasing and becoming more frequent and the run of continuous heat has increased in length. Where as in years gone, we may have had a few nights in the SEQ that were unbearable and may have strung out for a few nights. You can definitely notice a shift.

The long range forecast from BoM for Autumn was not what most people would like to have heard. In summary they state

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for March to May shows:

Rainfall is likely to be below average for most of the southern half of Australia.
Daytime temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of the southern two-thirds of Australia and parts of far northern Australia.
Overnight temperatures are likely to very likely to be above average across most of Australia.


I was reading an interesting article yesterday about the Polar Vortex and the role it has been playing in our recent climate patterns, as well as the potential influence it may have in the near future — in both hemispheres.
In Australia, we saw an example of this late last year with the SSD (Sudden Stratospheric Deceleration), also referred to by some as SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming), originating over Antarctica. This event disrupted the Polar Vortex and allowed breakaway lows to develop, which went on to influence a significant portion of our weather — particularly across the southern states.

There’s growing discussion that Polar Vortex behaviour could become a stronger climate driver over the next few years. In simple terms, it suggests conditions may become more variable as we move through this broader climate shift.
I’ll be keeping a close watch on the key climate drivers and how they line up with the modelling as we head into autumn.

So it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, but at this stage, it suggests the warmer trend may continue into autumn.