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Posted by: Ken	Posted: Monday, 30 September 2019 12:17:54 PM(UTC)
Originally Posted by: Tsunami Has anyine seen the soundings for today for storm chances Feels like a strom day Yeah, I had a detailed look at ACCESS-R, etc soundings for various points around the region. Below is a summary of what I said elsewhere: " There's definitely more than enough directional and speed shear (caused by the freshening ESE onshore low level flow after the small weak near-coastal low drifts away and weakens, undercutting the strong westerlies above) to support severe storms. But instability is very modest in most of SE QLD so I think it'll be a case of "only a slight chance but if anything got tall enough, it'd tap into the shear and potentially become severe". "If" being the operative word. Both EC lightning and ACCESS-R soundings look somewhat more favourable in northern areas such as the Wide Bay and Burnett, and some western parts of SE QLD but it could conceivably go either way. ACCESS-C tries to develop some convection around the Scenic Rim ranges which then drifts in a rough NNW direction later as it grows somewhat. Will be a wait and see situation with today. Overall though, today looks far from epic to me. "
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