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Posted by: Ken	Posted: Monday, 11 November 2019 1:54:49 PM(UTC)
The current and recent smoke is the worst I can recall in my years of living here in terms of its sheer frequency, persistence, and geographical extent. The Black Saturday fires were nightmarish in every single aspect but its fires and smoke had much less geographical extent and reach than the current ones. The light winds and stable atmosphere caused by the high haven't been helping things this morning here. I suspect the smoke might decrease somewhat on Tuesday with the NW'lies kicking in but there still appears to be the possibility (but definitely not a certainty) that this Wednesday may see some further smoke haze near the surface reaching sections of SE QLD yet again from the NSW fires due to the S to SE wind change pushing up the coast….. as well as the outside chance of some dust haze again from inland dust storms. It also depends on how much any SE QLD fires will add to the smoke. If any further smoke haze does manage to reach us on Wed, the majority of it will probably be from the lower part of the smoke plumes in NSW as the S to SE coastal wind change pushes up the coast, while most of the smoke in their mid and upper parts will probably keep getting dragged out to sea by the strong upper level NW to SW winds. This also partly depends on whether any large fires start around central parts of the NSW coast and adjacent inland in addition to the existing fires. But the lingering smoke looks more certain along much of the northern half of the NSW coast because a number of fires are a bit inland of the coast, meaning much of the smoke will likely keep getting dragged over the coast as it heads out to sea. Here's a forecast loop of surface smoke concentrations for the next few days predicted by the US Navy’s Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=...ZlE&feature=youtu.be A couple of important caveats though - these maps won’t necessarily show concentrations further up in the air.... and it's based on current fires so if any of these fires change weaken or intensify, or new ones develop, the forecast smoke shown on this map will also change. Mid or late this week still looks to have the prospect of some shower or severe thunderstorm activity (moreso the weekend) in this local area but any rainfall amounts look fairly modest, and they look more like being brief interruptions to the ongoing dry weather rather than a dominant weather condition.
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