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Posted by: Ken Offline Posted: Saturday, 16 November 2019 6:48:17 PM(UTC)
Considering this would be tedious to rewrite, I'll just copy and paste my own thoughts I posted elsewhere about Sunday's potential in the SE Coast district here instead of reinventing the wheel:

" Although shower/thunderstorm activity (some possibly severe) looks highly likely in the region, there’s still the chance some sections may not get much due to capping (a layer of stable air near the surface) & borderline moisture in some areas.

For those who do manage to get something, it’ll probably be in the form of a brief shower or storm moving eastwards at a fast pace during the middle of the day or early-mid afternoon.... with big fat raindrops to start off with and perhaps a short but sharp downpour or two.
A small portion of locations near the coastline could also get an additional but brief shower or storm on Sunday night near the SSE wind change pushing up the coast.

Some locations may also get a severe storm with brief damaging winds or hail..... however the shortage of abundant deep moisture and quick moving nature of the activity means that while any rainfall may look & sound heavy, any flash flooding potential is likely to be localised at worst.
In fact, some of the activity may do more harm than good with lightning and gusty winds posing a fire risk for areas which don’t get much rainfall, given the Extreme fire danger in some areas.

Showers/storms are also possible near the southern half of the QLD coast/northern half of the NSW coast in general as well as the adjacent inland…. but for the Downs, the majority of the low-rainfall activity is likely to be restricted to northern parts (with the slight chance in eastern parts)…. with no rainfall elsewhere in the region.

Chance of a storm at least somewhere in SEQ on Sun:
Slight.
Medium.
High. ✅ (but not the whole region)

Chance of a severe storm at least somewhere in SEQ on Sun:
Slight.
Medium. ✅
High.

Rainfall amounts for any affected locations on Sun:
Low ✅ (but locally better amounts under strong storms).
Medium.
High.

An unstable atmosphere to the east of a surface trough of low pressure just inland of the coast is the main cause of this, and may be aided in SE QLD by a gusty SSE wind change surging up the coast on Sunday evening.
Strong shear could also cause a portion of the storms to become severe for some locations with brief damaging winds or large hail but it’s more speed shear (where wind speeds become a lot stronger with height) as opposed to directional shear (where wind directions change a lot with height).
The shortage of abundant moisture also means any flash flooding potential is likely to be localised… and the severe storm potential will be reduced until/unless storms can ingest moister air near the coast and develop lower bases.
The strong westerly steering winds aloft should drag any activity quickly towards parts of the coast.
The majority of any early morning patchy low cloud near the coast is also likely to decrease later in the morning. "
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