For a more comprehensive report which is basically stating why the system will weaken I have posted the JTWC remarks.

112100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 162.6E.
11FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192
NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT
OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. POLEWARD ELONGATION DUE TO SHEAR
IS BECOMING APPARENT; HOWEVER, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO
ENHANCED THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 111806Z GPM
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE TC WILL NOW TRACK MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST BUILDS. AROUND TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL DIG INTO AND WEAKEN THE STR RESULTING IN A MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE (20KTS+).
THIS, PLUS THE APPROACH OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM.
CONCURRENTLY, NEAR TAU 48, TC UESI WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 500MB LOW EAST OF
AUSTRALIA AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND COOLING SST
VALUES (24-26C). THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 72, CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODELS ARE
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//