Apparently Kimi is a midget...with a "highly uncertain" track and intensity forecast..

Tropical Cyclone Kimi 2021
Last Modified: 03:00 January 17, 2021 UTC
Cyclone Kimi 2021Kimi 2021
Kimi is located 209 km (113 nautical miles) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia, and has tracked southward at 6 km/h (3 knots) over the past 6 hours.
Satellite imagery shows that Kimi has rapidly developed into a midget tropical cyclone over the previous few hours, with a very small core of deep cycling convection, hot towers with overshooting tops and clearly defined low-level banding outside of the cirrus shield.
The initial position is assessed with high confidence based on a combination of the outer edges of a circulation seen in animated radar data and analysis of a very fortuitous ASCAT-B scatterometer bullseye pass.
The system has developed very quickly in a very favourable environment characterised by low (5-10 knots) wind shear, warm (29-30°C) sea surface temperatures and due to its position under an upper-level ridge axis, dual channel moderate outflow aloft.
The general synoptic steering pattern is very complex, with two lobes of a deep-layer subtropical ridge, one to the north and another to the south, along with a weak upper-level low to the northwest combining to create a weak steering pattern, resulting in a slow track generally towards the south.
Over the next 24 to 36 hours the steering pattern will change subtly with the steering ridge to the east building and pushing west with a col region developing over eastern Australia.
In response to the overall shift in the steering pattern, Kimi should track slowly south then southwestward as the ridge strengthens, and after weakening over land, the system will fall under the influence of the low level easterly flow pushing it further inland to the west of Cairns.
The system is forecast to steadily intensify over the next 24 hours under favourable environmental conditions, reaching a peak of 110 km/h (60 knots) prior to landfall north of Cairns just after 36 hours.
After landfall, the system will quickly weaken and dissipate due to terrain interaction coupled with increasing wind shear. Dynamic model guidance is unsurprisingly in very poor agreement due to very small nature of the storm structure.
The model guidance presents a range of potential scenarios from a track due south then curving northward, to a due west track into the Gulf of Carpentaria.
The JTWC forecast track is a blend of the model guidance and is based primarily on analysis of the overall synoptic trend and does not favor any individual model tracker, thus lending very low confidence to the track forecast.
In light of the highly uncertain track forecast, confidence in the intensity forecast is subsequently very low as well. However the majority of the multi-model intensity consensus suggest intensification through landfall.
Maximum significant wave height at 17/00:00 UTC is 14 feet (4.3 meters). This cancels and supersedes Ref A (wtps21 PGTW 162230).
After landfall, the system will quickly weaken and dissipate due to terrain interaction coupled with increasing wind shear. Dynamic model guidance is unsurprisingly in very poor agreement due to very small nature of the storm structure.
The model guidance presents a range of potential scenarios from a track due south then curving northward, to a due west track into the Gulf of Carpentaria.
The JTWC forecast track is a blend of the model guidance and is based primarily on analysis of the overall synoptic trend and does not favor any individual model tracker, thus lending very low confidence to the track forecast.
In light of the highly uncertain track forecast, confidence in the intensity forecast is subsequently very low as well. However the majority of the multi-model intensity consensus suggest intensification through landfall.
Maximum significant wave height at 17/00:00 UTC is 14 feet (4.3 meters).