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Posted by: Ken Offline Posted: Wednesday, 11 September 2019 1:17:17 PM(UTC)
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Some modest instability possibly developing early to mid next week as winds turn more northerly (after the couple of short-lived S to SE changes towards the end of this week/early weekend which may temporarily increase wind gusts near the coast) but one of the problems is less than ideal moisture.... so the latter factor would have to upgrade a lot in future runs for anything more than localised convection, if any.
(note in the EC ensemble graph that the lighter blue shaded area only represents the top 10% most aggressive outliers of all the members).

While the temporary increases in winds behind the changes towards the end of this week don't look as strong as Monday's for most areas and therefore fire dangers unlikely to be as bad as recently, you'd hope they'd have made a fair bit of progress in taming the current fires by then.
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