Welcome Guest! To enable all features please
Login
or
Register
.
Forum
Active Topics
Search
Help
Login
Register
Notification
Error
OK
Weather Forum
Report Post
Posted by:
Ken
Posted:
Saturday, 14 September 2019 3:21:41 PM(UTC)
Originally Posted by: crikey
Oh Good..
ACC g has a 2 day event to keep is amused. Mainly coastal and ranges but time for adjustments.
..........
T+96hrs ACC g
Surface trough with tropical dip in isobars . Later, possibly forming an onshore low.
From Tuesday 17th sept and into 18th Sept .I will guess some storm activity.
and then after that on thursday 19th, we have an easterly moist onshore stream from the Tasman possibly giving some coastal actvity on the thursday.
http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml
For some days now, various models have been hinting at a period of increased moisture from about mid next week as a more N to NE onshore flow becomes established.
There's nothing yet that currently indicates any good confidence of big rain events within the next few weeks but even just a little bit of rainfall from some shower or thunderstorm activity would be nice... even if it means only some locations get wet while others don't.
Above is a 2-week graph showing the percentage of the past two runs of the GFS ensemble going for at least some measurable rainfall for Brisbane. Each tick mark/date label on the bottom axis represents 10am on that date.
Tuesday does have a few aspects supportive of severe thunderstorm/supercell potential for southern parts of SE QLD/NE NSW - strong shear and nice wind profile, not much cloud cover, and a coastal change.
But moisture is somewhat marginal in places (especially in the north) and there's varying amounts of capping near the coast depending on which model you look at e.g. ACCESS-G currently has virtually no capping over inland parts which is pretty typical but moderate capping near the coast (and even stronger further north)... and the reasonably modest level of instability.
Despite coastal capping, any inland activity has the distinct possibility of being advected closer to the coast in southern parts on the strong ~35kt westerly steering winds.
So not the ideal setup but some southern locations in our region could see a bit of action provided moisture and capping don't get any worse (if it does, storm chances will become pretty slim).
Please enter the reason you're reporting this post:
Font Color
Default
Dark Red
Red
Orange
Brown
Yellow
Green
Olive
Cyan
Blue
Dark Blue
Indigo
Violet
White
Black
Font Size
1
2
3
4
Default
6
7
8
9
[YOUTUBE]Put YouTube URL in here[/YOUTUBE]
[VIMEO]https://www.vimeo.com/xxxxxxx[/VIMEO]
[HIDE-THANKS=x]The tag hides content from people who have below then X thanks received.[/HIDE-THANKS]
[HIDE-REPLY-THANKS]The tag hides content from people until they either reply in the same thread or press the thank you button for the post.[/HIDE-REPLY-THANKS]
[HIDE-REPLY]The tag hides content from people until they replied in the same thread.[/HIDE-REPLY]
[GROUP-HIDE]Hide the Content from Guests, or other Roles if defined.[/GROUP-HIDE]
[GOOGLEWIDGET]<script src="url"></script>[/GOOGLEWIDGET]
[dailymotion]Enter Dailymotion Url (http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xxxx)[/dailymotion]
[HIDE-POSTS=x]The tag hides content from people who have below then X posts.[/HIDE-POSTS]
[GOOGLEMAPS]Enter Google Maps Url[/GOOGLEMAPS]
[ALBUMIMG]Enter a Album Image Number[/ALBUMIMG]
[ATTACH]Enter a Attachment ID[/ATTACH]
[INSTAGRAM][localization=INSTAGRAM_DESCRIPTION]Put the Instagram URL Here[/INSTAGRAM]
[FACEBOOK]Enter the Url of the post or the Embed Code of the Post you want to embed[/FACEBOOK]
[SPOILER]Put Spoiler Text in here[/SPOILER]
[HIDE]This tag hides content from people until they press the thank you button for the post.[/HIDE]
[USERLINK]Put User Name Here[/USERLINK]
Plain Text
Bash(shell)
C
C++
C#
CSS
Git
HTML
Java
JavaScript
Python
SQL
XML
Visual Basic
Loading...
Report
Cancel
Privacy Policy
|
Powered by YAF.NET
|
YAF.NET © 2003-2024, Yet Another Forum.NET
This page was generated in 0.041 seconds.
Important Information:
The Weather Forum uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies.
More Details
Close
Weather Forum
Weatherzone Forum Alternative
The Weather Forum for Australia
Australian Weather Forum
Weather Forum for Australia, climate change, storm chasing, cyclones, weather photography