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Posted by: Ken Offline Posted: Saturday, 14 September 2019 3:21:41 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: crikey Go to Quoted Post
Oh Good..BigGrin
ACC g has a 2 day event to keep is amused. Mainly coastal and ranges but time for adjustments.
..........
T+96hrs ACC g
Surface trough with tropical dip in isobars . Later, possibly forming an onshore low.
From Tuesday 17th sept and into 18th Sept .I will guess some storm activity.
and then after that on thursday 19th, we have an easterly moist onshore stream from the Tasman possibly giving some coastal actvity on the thursday.

http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml


For some days now, various models have been hinting at a period of increased moisture from about mid next week as a more N to NE onshore flow becomes established.

There's nothing yet that currently indicates any good confidence of big rain events within the next few weeks but even just a little bit of rainfall from some shower or thunderstorm activity would be nice... even if it means only some locations get wet while others don't.

Above is a 2-week graph showing the percentage of the past two runs of the GFS ensemble going for at least some measurable rainfall for Brisbane. Each tick mark/date label on the bottom axis represents 10am on that date.

Tuesday does have a few aspects supportive of severe thunderstorm/supercell potential for southern parts of SE QLD/NE NSW - strong shear and nice wind profile, not much cloud cover, and a coastal change.
But moisture is somewhat marginal in places (especially in the north) and there's varying amounts of capping near the coast depending on which model you look at e.g. ACCESS-G currently has virtually no capping over inland parts which is pretty typical but moderate capping near the coast (and even stronger further north)... and the reasonably modest level of instability.
Despite coastal capping, any inland activity has the distinct possibility of being advected closer to the coast in southern parts on the strong ~35kt westerly steering winds.
So not the ideal setup but some southern locations in our region could see a bit of action provided moisture and capping don't get any worse (if it does, storm chances will become pretty slim).
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