Welcome Guest! To enable all features please
Login
or
Register
.
Forum
Active Topics
Search
Help
Login
Register
Notification
Error
OK
Weather Forum
Report Post
Posted by:
Ken
Posted:
Sunday, 15 September 2019 3:52:21 PM(UTC)
Nice work CSN, and thanks for starting up the thread
Yeah going by EC, a NW-SE oriented surface trough and front moves up over NSW, deepens over inland northern NSW and possibly forms a small weak low or two there as an upper trough approaches from the west and amplifies. The area of low pressure then intensifies as an east coast low once it reaches waters along the northern-central NSW coast while the upper trough also amplifies further and cuts off a mid/upper low.
But since our region looks like being on the northern end of this setup, it still doesn't look like we'll get too much in the way of any widespread rainfall amounts. More like a bit of short-lived shower and thunderstorm activity later on Tuesday before a drier SW flow wrapping up and around the ECL comes over us and quickly clears it away. But once the ECL gradually weakens offshore, it looks like it might allow a reasonably moist onshore NE flow to become re-established over our region (although not manifesting itself with that much rainfall except for a bit of coastal shower activity).
Basically, the further south you go along the NSW coast, the better the rainfall amounts (parts of the coast on the southern flank of that low may even get moderate to locally heavy falls developing).
1st graphic above - accumulating rainfall scenarios from a range of models for Brisbane out to 10 days.
2nd graphic - accumulated/composite lightning flash density from EC for Tuesday (in case you're not aware already, it's from Windy.com and you can view all sorts of stuff on there).
3rd graphic - the percentage of scenarios from a combo of the past 6 runs of GFS and the US Navy ensemble that are currently forecasting more than 25mm of total rainfall within the next 5 days (up to the end of Thursday).
Please enter the reason you're reporting this post:
Font Color
Default
Dark Red
Red
Orange
Brown
Yellow
Green
Olive
Cyan
Blue
Dark Blue
Indigo
Violet
White
Black
Font Size
1
2
3
4
Default
6
7
8
9
[YOUTUBE]Put YouTube URL in here[/YOUTUBE]
[VIMEO]https://www.vimeo.com/xxxxxxx[/VIMEO]
[HIDE-THANKS=x]The tag hides content from people who have below then X thanks received.[/HIDE-THANKS]
[HIDE-REPLY-THANKS]The tag hides content from people until they either reply in the same thread or press the thank you button for the post.[/HIDE-REPLY-THANKS]
[HIDE-REPLY]The tag hides content from people until they replied in the same thread.[/HIDE-REPLY]
[GROUP-HIDE]Hide the Content from Guests, or other Roles if defined.[/GROUP-HIDE]
[GOOGLEWIDGET]<script src="url"></script>[/GOOGLEWIDGET]
[dailymotion]Enter Dailymotion Url (http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xxxx)[/dailymotion]
[HIDE-POSTS=x]The tag hides content from people who have below then X posts.[/HIDE-POSTS]
[GOOGLEMAPS]Enter Google Maps Url[/GOOGLEMAPS]
[ALBUMIMG]Enter a Album Image Number[/ALBUMIMG]
[ATTACH]Enter a Attachment ID[/ATTACH]
[INSTAGRAM][localization=INSTAGRAM_DESCRIPTION]Put the Instagram URL Here[/INSTAGRAM]
[FACEBOOK]Enter the Url of the post or the Embed Code of the Post you want to embed[/FACEBOOK]
[SPOILER]Put Spoiler Text in here[/SPOILER]
[HIDE]This tag hides content from people until they press the thank you button for the post.[/HIDE]
[USERLINK]Put User Name Here[/USERLINK]
Plain Text
Bash(shell)
C
C++
C#
CSS
Git
HTML
Java
JavaScript
Python
SQL
XML
Visual Basic
Loading...
Report
Cancel
Privacy Policy
|
Powered by YAF.NET
|
YAF.NET © 2003-2024, Yet Another Forum.NET
This page was generated in 0.041 seconds.
Important Information:
The Weather Forum uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies.
More Details
Close
Weather Forum
Weatherzone Forum Alternative
The Weather Forum for Australia
Australian Weather Forum
Weather Forum for Australia, climate change, storm chasing, cyclones, weather photography