Wednesday is a bit of a pause rewind and repeat of the same weather, showers, hopefully not as heavy as it was down the Gold Coast yesterday. Thundery showers/ possible storm Forecast have been a bit off to be honest. Some of the forecast shower/ rain totals have been way above those predicted. But to be honest and fair on BoM, the atmosphere is so saturated that it is hard to know with certainty how much will fall and where. Most times it may only be an hour or 2 before the event or in real time.

As for O5U, the Coral Sea Low, it is worth keeping an eye on the BoM’s cyclone update.
Some of the models are still finishing their runs so are not ready for posting. But ECMFW has now thrown this into the framework. Not saying this is what will happen because Cyclones and Severe weather events can change so rapidly. So do not panic. We are still a long way off in terms of Cyclone forecasting. When you stop and think of all the cyclones, how many have been forecast to cross the coast only for them to suddenly loose strength and steer to the East away from the coast.

This is ECMWF ensemble for a possible forecast.



As I said do not panic because this may chop and change so many times.