What a hot humid night. Actual temperature through out the night was 25.8°C, dew point was 25.8°C and the apparent or feels like temperature was 31.5°C. Heavy rain hit around 01:00 am and we had a total at Lawnton of 21 mm.

Yesterday there were pockets of showers and storms albeit very slow moving. I think this was one of a few reasons we didn’t see the day pan out as the models indicated, the steering winds were not strong at all, so the cells that developed stalled. It has been tricky lately trying to get things smack on. The models are underperforming and even BoM are updating forecast at all times of the day. And there are a few reasons for this too. The atmosphere is so primed and dynamic that just the slightest change effects the whole set up. Plus the monsoonal weather up in the North and the Lows are having an impact on our weather.

The Coral Sea low is not expected to form into a cyclone until Monday now. That keeps moving around and is keeping models and forecasters guessing the next move.

Today for the South East and NE NSW it is much the same as the last couple of days. Showers with possible storms and some could be heavy falls once again if you happen to be under one. Going by the GFS model below and Sounding it is very Coastal and not a lot of rain nor steering/ shear through the 700-500 mb.. So it could be hit and miss, or things could rapidly change. So please just keep an eye to the sky and listen and watch for any warnings if things change.


Possible showers



The Cape values plus you can see the red areas of the 2 main lows effecting our weather right now.



The forecast Sounding with a lack of steering