The night time temperatures have been way cooler and not as humid over the last 2 nights. Very nice and enjoying it.

The weather long range outlook is still a bit of a mixed bag with consensus of the models. They all have different outcomes with the Low of the South East Coast and Ex Kirrily. The accuracy for models this far out is pretty low. When it comes within the 24 hour period, they say the accuracy of the models is about 90% but unfortunately for me, I don’t really subscribe to that point of view. My reason is: how many times do we reach the forecast day and at 05:10 the forecast is out. Anywhere from 07:00- 11:00 BoM have updated the forecast. The weather is just so unpredictable and the slightest changes can have a big impact on the weather.

To give credit due, this is not all the time but mainly through a major weather event which is hard to pin point.

So from all the models the take away is, ex Kirrily is expected to move to the Gulf then turn sharply and head South. So the Southern Interior of Queensland will be impacted to some degree, the atmosphere to the North is loaded with moisture so there could be a fair bit of rain. ?? Just have to see as we draw closer. Once it moves into the South East , that is where it goes in all directions. So once again just have to wait and see.

The Low of the East Coast also has many outcomes, So a wait and see. But while waiting it is a good time to prepare just in case. There is 2 possible Lows that could impact the South East and NE NSW. But the accuracy is just a little over the place from Catastrophic to totally misses us.

The best model I could present is the old 4 day as below.



As for today, there is a slight chance for some Coastal showers. Below is the SkewT ( which shows a little moisture but the chance for a storm are about nil)
And also the Li Chart and as you can see all the action is around Bunderberg and to the North.





Chance of showers/rain