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Posted by: Colmait Offline Posted: Monday, 16 September 2019 7:48:40 PM(UTC)
Originally Posted by: DelBoy Go to Quoted Post
BOM now have "Chance of a gusty storm in the afternoon" for Brisbane on their forecast this evening. Just 40% of rain though.

(Not that I really understand the BOM % chance of rainfall and then a total).


Once you get the hang of it, it is easy. To me there is 3 equations. First the percentage.

So if it says 40% chance of rain then what it means (1st equation) there is a 40 % chance of receiving 0.2 mm
of rain or more. 0.2 mm is the lowest BoM record.

Then the forecast may say 5 to 10 mms ( equations 2 &3)

Equation 2. 5mm. BoM are saying there is a 50% chance of receiving 5mm.
Equation 3. 10mm. Bom are stating that there is a 25% chance of receiving tham 10 mm of rain or even more.

So for tomorrow

.D0443FBE-6F2E-4DDE-A612-68DBC2FE8EE0.jpeg

That tell us there is a chance of a thunderstorm but if it eventuates it will be a dry storm or very little rain. Therefore with the wind there is a great risk of lightning causing bushfires.

For a full read of how to understand the forecast it is here.

http://www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS/rainfall-faq.shtml
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