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Posted by:
Colmait
Posted:
Monday, 16 September 2019 7:48:40 PM(UTC)
Originally Posted by: DelBoy
BOM now have "Chance of a gusty storm in the afternoon" for Brisbane on their forecast this evening. Just 40% of rain though.
(Not that I really understand the BOM % chance of rainfall and then a total).
Once you get the hang of it, it is easy. To me there is 3 equations. First the percentage.
So if it says 40% chance of rain then what it means (1st equation) there is a 40 % chance of receiving 0.2 mm
of rain or more. 0.2 mm is the lowest BoM record.
Then the forecast may say 5 to 10 mms ( equations 2 &3)
Equation 2. 5mm. BoM are saying there is a 50% chance of receiving 5mm.
Equation 3. 10mm. Bom are stating that there is a 25% chance of receiving tham 10 mm of rain or even more.
So for tomorrow
.
That tell us there is a chance of a thunderstorm but if it eventuates it will be a dry storm or very little rain. Therefore with the wind there is a great risk of lightning causing bushfires.
For a full read of how to understand the forecast it is here.
http://www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS/rainfall-faq.shtml
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