Just an update as regards to our upcoming weather pattern and the chances of a return to La Nina are now even higher. BoM are still lagging behind with their predictions. They only like to venture out to about 5 months and then they have stringent conditions that have to be met before they will declare an event such as a Neutral, El Nino or La Nina pattern etc.

Where as NOAA using a multi modelling system have an 80+% chance of a return to La Nina. The forecast is well above La Niña's average occurrence of once every four years, and if it comes to fruition would represent the fourth La Niña in five years, a frequency only seen twice previously since 1900.

NOAA has the possibility of La Nina forming as early as June. So basically Australia will once again see enhanced rainfall.

Below is the NOAA prediction chart indicating the phases and the months it is expected.



Unfortunately for myself I have lost a bit of confidence in BoM and find NOAA to be a little more on the ball and they have a better advanced weather guidance system. So time will definitely let us know who was on the ball.