I haven’t posted in a little while as our weather is still stuck in this cycle of hot days followed by a few cooler days and once again we have a repeat of this for the week ahead.

BoM are going for a chance of storms for tomorrow but I am personally waiting to see how tomorrow pans out. There is a cold front approaching that will drop temperatures on Wednesday by 10°C but some of the modelling system are not 100 % convinced that wide spread storms will build. But please stay vigilant just in case because you can’t rule it anything out. We could see the old basic hot V cold style storm that turns quite nasty if the fronts move through earlier and the timing is just right.

Below is the storm cast for tomorrow and the skewT/sounding. We really need to see the actual sounding as it is released tomorrow.





As you can see on the Sounding there is a little instability and storms would be high based and starting to choke at about 31000 feet.

In comparison, Wednesday seems to be a more active day albeit possibly thundery rain. I have included the stormcast and forecast sounding for Wednesday below. But it will be pleasant to have another cool change with a bit of showers/rain within this thread’s parameters.





In summary there is a chance of a storm for Tuesday but it is a really wait and see how everything pans out. Some storms are very clear cut, but this one is a little more touch and go, so the best thing to do is keep an eye out and listen for any warnings if storms develop. It could go either way so it is best to be prepared. But we definitely have a cool change for Wednesday with the possibility of thundery showers/ rain.

We are still on La Niña watch and hence still in a neutral weather pattern right now.It is leaning more towards La Niña and is close to being called but once again a wait and see.