I had to wait for the forecast soundings to load this morning so I went and mowed the lawn. The feel like temperatures is already way above 30°C and the CBD ihas an apparent temperature of 35°C at 0900.

The soundings came through for the forecast modelling and at this stage it doesn’t look that crash hot for storms.

The 10:00 sounding has a lack of moisture and a solid cap of over 5°C. So that would be hard to break but there is still no moisture. As below.



The 13:00 sounding has the cap eroding but the cape or instability weakens considerably. There is a little bit of moisture as per below.



Then the 16:00 sounding has no cap, , instability has deteriorated and the amount of moisture is starting to dry up a little . As below.



You cannot definitely rule out storms or showers. But for storms to develop it is going to have to take a lot of things to happen at the right time. Not impossible, so just keep an eye and ear out. Maybe a refreshing shower would be nice a little latter with the change coming through. But this morning sounding will give us a better understanding of what is really happening in the atmosphere.