Scott, the 16:00 significant weather advisory
ABPW10 PGTW 280600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS CORRECTED/280600Z-290600ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.9S 145.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 146.1E, APPROXIMATELY 21 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA, JUST
NORTH OF CAIRNS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAIRNS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS CONSISTENTLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT IN A MOISTURE-FILLED
ENVIRONMENT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE SYSTEM
SHOWS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 280230)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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