We are now into Autumn and the long range forecast is for a warmer than average temperatures for the next couple of months.

But right now the big question is Cyclone Alfred. I have held back from posting anything until we got a little closer. As per cyclones, models throw all sorts of scenarios and you end up with a spaghetti ensemble that shows the cyclone doing all sorts of things and crossing the coast and in so many areas.

In the last day, Alfred is starting to take a make itself felt along the Southeast Coast and the Bureau is now starting to get a little bit more of better picture of TC Alfred with a possibility of it crossing the Coast.

Even though it is a few days off, things can still change. But with the latest forecast track, it is worth keeping a serious eye on this system. There is now a fair chance that TC Alfred could now cross the Coast from the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane or the Gold Coast

Here is the latest update and track maps.







Even though things can change quickly it would be very wise to be prepared for a possible crossing or for some severe weather.
I have tried to keep this post a simple as possible without going into all the technicalities. The important thing is watching a being prepared in case instead of reading a massive technical post.