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Posted by: Ken Offline Posted: Friday, 20 September 2019 9:36:52 AM(UTC)
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1st graphic above - some possible instability showing up again in about a week's time as the flow becomes more northerly again - these are the percentages of the GFS ensemble currently going for a combo of more than 500j/kg of CAPE and at least some measurable rainfall for Archerfield.

2nd image - a couple of periods of a bit of rainfall also currently showing up in the 10-day multimodel accumulated rainfall plume for Brisbane, mainly during the overnight hours tonight and again in around a week's time.

3rd image - the first time in awhile I've seen anything other than dark brown for this region on the multiweek ACCESS-S outputs. While the probabilities are almost 50/50, at least it's something.
Temps also look like being pleasantly cool to mild locally for a change except for a brief hotter spike around Monday and warmer than normal min temps.
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