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Skeetpete		#1 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 4:11:05 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 35 Location: Toowoomba Thanks: 29 times Was thanked: 120 time(s) in 33 post(s)		Watl has falls between 30 to 50MM fri/sat for the SE coast and eastern parts of the darling downs/granite belt. Unfortunately this will taper off as you go further west.This will be needed as the weather is forecast to heat up again from next WED to FRI withy temps getting into the high 30,s. http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
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10 users thanked Skeetpete for this useful post.		Paul Atkins on 9/10/2019(UTC), Pabloako on 9/10/2019(UTC), junglegal on 9/10/2019(UTC), CantSpellNarangba on 9/10/2019(UTC), oceangyre on 9/10/2019(UTC), SatMan on 9/10/2019(UTC), sharjay on 10/10/2019(UTC), Falling_Droplet on 10/10/2019(UTC), Ken on 10/10/2019(UTC), crikey on 11/10/2019(UTC)
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crikey		#2 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 4:46:29 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 24/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 292 Location: Country Victorian Thanks: 580 times Was thanked: 503 time(s) in 194 post(s)		Originally Posted by: Skeetpete Watl has falls between 30 to 50MM fri/sat for the SE coast and eastern parts of the darling downs/granite belt. Unfortunately this will taper off as you go further west.This will be needed as the weather is forecast to heat up again from next WED to FRI withy temps getting into the high 30,s. http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp Thanks 'pete' for starting this thread. I am in VIC currently and finally have power again. Here is ACC r for friday 2pm. There is another tropical dip in isobars and ACC has quite a widespread precip' signal right along the east coast. At 2pm From east Victoria , right up,as far north as 20s latitude which is near Mackay. The signal also extends well out west of the divide. In VIC, NSW and QLD. I have no idea if it will be a troughy mess of a widespread area of convective cells and storms Hopefully helps the CFA and country folk. source http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml
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10 users thanked crikey for this useful post.		Skeetpete on 9/10/2019(UTC), Paul Atkins on 9/10/2019(UTC), Pabloako on 9/10/2019(UTC), junglegal on 9/10/2019(UTC), CantSpellNarangba on 9/10/2019(UTC), Greg on 9/10/2019(UTC), oceangyre on 9/10/2019(UTC), SatMan on 9/10/2019(UTC), sharjay on 10/10/2019(UTC), Falling_Droplet on 10/10/2019(UTC)
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Pabloako		#3 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 5:43:57 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 185 Location: Ocean View Thanks: 359 times Was thanked: 539 time(s) in 161 post(s)		Thanks for starting the new topic Pete. This is the latest GFS for Friday. Great to see rural NSW forecasting to get some rain.
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juztchillin		#4 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 6:54:36 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 21/09/2019(UTC) Posts: 32 Location: Gold coast Thanks: 125 times Was thanked: 126 time(s) in 31 post(s)		METEYE giving the Gold coast some juicy rain on the weekend.
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Skeetpete		#5 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 7:17:52 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 35 Location: Toowoomba Thanks: 29 times Was thanked: 120 time(s) in 33 post(s)		GFS from tropical tidbits shows the rain for fri afternoon onwards with some falls inland
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6 users thanked Skeetpete for this useful post.		CantSpellNarangba on 9/10/2019(UTC), oceangyre on 9/10/2019(UTC), SatMan on 9/10/2019(UTC), sharjay on 10/10/2019(UTC), Falling_Droplet on 10/10/2019(UTC), crikey on 11/10/2019(UTC)
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CantSpellNarangba		#6 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 7:26:56 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 23/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 155 Location: Narangba Thanks: 280 times Was thanked: 442 time(s) in 136 post(s)		Even starting to hit the news now. It’s been all about the heat in New South Wales and Queensland with ferocious fires destroying homes. But a dramatic change is imminent with some of the heaviest rain for six months waiting in the wings, forecasters have warned. Up to 100mm could sweep across the eastern seaboard with Brisbane and Sydney drenched. https://www.news.com.au/...81c02232b7d316ee1042dc89
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CantSpellNarangba		#7 Posted : Wednesday, 9 October 2019 9:03:46 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 23/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 155 Location: Narangba Thanks: 280 times Was thanked: 442 time(s) in 136 post(s)		BOM forecasts are predicting 30mm+ for Brisbane and it appears to be mostly troughy type rain with inbedded storms. Fingers crossed we can wash the high fire danger away!
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Pabloako		#8 Posted : Thursday, 10 October 2019 8:16:52 AM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 185 Location: Ocean View Thanks: 359 times Was thanked: 539 time(s) in 161 post(s)		Great to see that most models are still forecasting the tough and rain for this weekend, although totals are still varying. Below is a screenshot of the forecasting software I use on my website, which imports GFS data and then merges it with the historical averages from my home weather station and it creates a local forecast. The solid red line in my local temperature, the solid blue line is dewpoint and the bar graph is forecast precipitation. All up, it is predicting around 30mm for my location. Edited by moderator Thursday, 10 October 2019 8:18:20 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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Ken		#9 Posted : Thursday, 10 October 2019 12:12:27 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 2/09/2019(UTC) Posts: 105 Location: Brisbane Thanks: 145 times Was thanked: 561 time(s) in 103 post(s)		1st and 2nd maps - The lowest and highest rainfall scenario from the 51-member EC ensemble for accumulated rainfall amounts between now and 1am Sunday (before which the bulk of the rainfall will probably have eased). 3rd map - Probabilities of accumulated rainfall exceeding 10mm between now and 1am Sunday. Edited by user Thursday, 10 October 2019 12:13:08 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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9 users thanked Ken for this useful post.		Paul Atkins on 10/10/2019(UTC), CantSpellNarangba on 10/10/2019(UTC), DelBoy on 10/10/2019(UTC), SatMan on 10/10/2019(UTC), Skeetpete on 10/10/2019(UTC), Falling_Droplet on 10/10/2019(UTC), sharjay on 11/10/2019(UTC), snowbunny on 11/10/2019(UTC), crikey on 11/10/2019(UTC)
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Ken		#10 Posted : Thursday, 10 October 2019 7:03:34 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 2/09/2019(UTC) Posts: 105 Location: Brisbane Thanks: 145 times Was thanked: 561 time(s) in 103 post(s)		While it's not an epic droughtbreaking rain event, it's been awhile since there was such good multimodel consensus on the vast majority of locations in our region getting at least some rainfall - see above. You'd have to be really unlucky to miss out completely. It's really more a question of amounts. The main peak in SEQ still looks like being early Saturday.
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8 users thanked Ken for this useful post.		Skeetpete on 10/10/2019(UTC), Mama Tus on 10/10/2019(UTC), SatMan on 11/10/2019(UTC), sharjay on 11/10/2019(UTC), Ambient on 11/10/2019(UTC), snowbunny on 11/10/2019(UTC), crikey on 11/10/2019(UTC), Falling_Droplet on 11/10/2019(UTC)
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CantSpellNarangba		#11 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 1:53:37 AM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 23/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 155 Location: Narangba Thanks: 280 times Was thanked: 442 time(s) in 136 post(s)		Great stuff Ken and Pabloako for the charts and graphs. So glad we are finally going to get some widespread "wet stuff" and not just localised showers.
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DelBoy		#12 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 9:55:20 AM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 13/09/2019(UTC) Posts: 118 Location: Caboolture (the next Las Vegas!) Thanks: 215 times Was thanked: 297 time(s) in 100 post(s)		There was a tiny sprinkle of rain in the night here in Cabo. Not enough to register in my rain gauge, but the floor was damp.
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Pabloako		#13 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 10:16:43 AM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 185 Location: Ocean View Thanks: 359 times Was thanked: 539 time(s) in 161 post(s)		Here is an animation of how GFS thinks the next 72 hours will play out.
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CantSpellNarangba		#14 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 2:23:03 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 23/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 155 Location: Narangba Thanks: 280 times Was thanked: 442 time(s) in 136 post(s)		Lots of thunder around this afternoon and a band of heave rain is inbound. Love it! Edited by user Friday, 11 October 2019 2:24:05 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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Pabloako		#15 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 2:27:09 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 185 Location: Ocean View Thanks: 359 times Was thanked: 539 time(s) in 161 post(s)		Pelting it down here in Ocean View. The temperature has dropped to 14 degrees, it is chucking it down and wind gusting to 16kts.
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Greg		#16 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 3:39:44 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 26/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 32 Location: Bardon Thanks: 96 times Was thanked: 138 time(s) in 32 post(s)		Some nice steady rain here at the moment. Only a couple of rumbles of thunder. Unfortunately by the look of the radar it won’t last too long. Nice start to the event though.
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Tsunami		#17 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 4:18:24 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 47 Location: Bayside Thanks: 51 times Was thanked: 104 time(s) in 35 post(s)		Cleveland rain shield working overtime today..bugger of a thing
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Tsunami		#18 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 4:24:58 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 47 Location: Bayside Thanks: 51 times Was thanked: 104 time(s) in 35 post(s)		Oh dear. A down grade
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Ken		#19 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 4:39:16 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 2/09/2019(UTC) Posts: 105 Location: Brisbane Thanks: 145 times Was thanked: 561 time(s) in 103 post(s)		Originally Posted by: Tsunami Oh dear. A down grade Unlucky! So far at least anyway.
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6 users thanked Ken for this useful post.		snowbunny on 11/10/2019(UTC), Skeetpete on 11/10/2019(UTC), crikey on 11/10/2019(UTC), Greg on 11/10/2019(UTC), Falling_Droplet on 11/10/2019(UTC), sharjay on 12/10/2019(UTC)
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Falling_Droplet		#20 Posted : Friday, 11 October 2019 6:06:30 PM(UTC) Retweet
Rank: Advanced Member Groups: Registered Joined: 25/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 1,839 Location: Ferny Grove Thanks: 985 times Was thanked: 856 time(s) in 419 post(s)		2 mild thunderstorms with one at lunch that was decaying and another in the mid afternoon. Automatic gauge received 0.6 mm from the first and 3.6 mm from the second from my automatic gauge. Great to see some rain and pleased to see quite a few cells today. Hopefully we can do well with the overnight rain.
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