Hi Wettish. Welcome to our group. Hopefully your season will kick in soon. I'm still having trouble believing the amount of rain we've had here.

Hi wettish’
Always great to have ex weatherzoners contributing.
Hopefully a few more will join in to keep things interesting.

Had a look at the Access g gradient wind streams in the Broader Asia region
The Indian Ocean has another 2 cyclones developing.
The cross equatorial is still weak in the Australian jurisdiction. Very strong easterly right across the central pacific still continuing
I can see in 7 days time the monsoon trough line and tropical low instigating near the gulf region.
Thanks for the longer range heads up. Will watch with interest.

So we are waiting on the convection up north to gain momentum. Judging by the amount of dry air coming across from the centre it will be a short lived cyclone if it does get it act together. Might more action over in the Indian ocean.

Ok..... I'm confused.... (Probably not hard).

There is hardly anything of GFS or CMC or even weatherzone charts that say there is a cyclone in Kimi's forecast area.

WZ has a small low pressure of 1011hpa on the monsoon trough on Tuesday, but that is it. However BOM are going for a CAT2 tomorrow.

Am I missing something?

TC Kimi - track map 4



Headline:
Tropical cyclone Kimi moving slowly south-southeast, expected to turn south-southwest tomorrow. Cyclone Warning extended south to Lucinda.


Areas affected:
Warning zone: Cooktown to Lucinda, extending inland to Mareeba and Chillagoe, and including Cairns, Port Douglas, Cardwell, and Atherton.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Cooktown to Cape Melville, and Palmerville.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Kimi at 7:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 15.6 degrees South, 146.6 degrees East , 145 kilometres east of Cooktown and 170 kilometres north northeast of Cairns .
Movement: south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour .

Tropical cyclone Kimi has been moving slowly south-southeast through today, but is expected to turn more to the south-southwest tomorrow.

The slow southward movement has delayed the expected crossing time. The system is currently expected to cross the coast late on Monday between about Port Douglas and Innisfail. There remains considerable uncertaintly with the crossing time and location.

The system may intensify further over the next 24 hours and reach category 2 before landfall.


Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h may develop about coastal and island areas between Port Douglas and Innisfail on Monday afternoon or evening as the core of the cyclone approaches.

GALES with gusts to 120km/h may develop about coastal and island areas between Cooktown and Innisfail from early Monday morning. These GALES may extend inland to Mareeba and Chillagoe, or further south to Cardwell, later on Monday depending on the movement of the cyclone.

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Cape Flattery and Cardwell from Sunday evening. A Flood Watch is current for this area; refer to that product for more detail.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are likely tonight and on Monday as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast, however they are unlikely to exceed the highest tide of the year.


Recommended Action:
People between Cooktown and Lucinda should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- If you choose to take shelter away from your home, stay COVID-19 safe and pack a mask and hand sanitiser (if you have them).
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

I don’t know where they get a cyclone from the wind fields displayed on BOM Access model
A tropical low perhaps.
Are they desperate to fill the quota for cyclones they forecast?
I have little trust in BOM regarding their climate emergency.
Seems a lot of drama to me
I thought Imogen was overcooked as well
Tropical storm at best
Maybe they define all tropical storms as cyclones these days
Who knows?

The BOM technical Bulletin has Kimi at 990 h pa
Very small with radius winds only 35 to 95 km wide
So currently very small.
The winds in 4 quadrants range from 34 to 48 knots( 63 to 89 km/hr)
Intensification expected in the next 24 hrs to 983 hPa
Winds to 55 knots ( 102 km/ hr)
http://www.bom.gov.au/cg...wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20018.txt

Looking at the American definition Komi would be rated as a tropical storm.. This storm is currently recognised on this monitoring service
https://www.wunderground...21/tropical-cyclone-kimi

OK
Heads up for a strong TC for WA from ACCESS model.
Should be named by Thursday at least and could make landfall near Port Hedland on Saturday.
Looks a deep compact nasty TC

Kimi is looking more of a messy blob at the moment.

Just a low off Townsville now. Barely showing on radar.





Headline:
Cyclone Kimi has weakened into a tropical low off the north Queensland coast. Significant impacts on the coast are no longer expected, although heavy rainfall remains a possibility.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: Lucinda to Bowen.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kimi at 4:00 am AEST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 18.3 degrees South, 147.6 degrees East , 250 kilometres southeast of Cairns and 135 kilometres northeast of Townsville .
Movement: slow moving .

Cyclone Kimi has weakened into a remnant tropical low off the north Queensland coast.

The system is expected to remain slow-moving well off the coast through much of today, then begin tracking back towards the north-northwest from late this afternoon as a weak tropical low.

A coastal crossing as a tropical cyclone is no longer expected.

Hazards:
GALES are no longer expected about coastal and island areas.

HEAVY RAINFALL with the potential to produce flash flooding and major river flooding may still affect coastal areas between Innisfail and Bowen on Tuesday and Wednesday if the remnant low moves closer to the coast. A Flood Watch is current for this area; refer to that product for more detail.

Tides will be slightly higher than normal between Bowen and Lucinda, however the sea level is not expected to approach the highest tide of the year.

Details:
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 am January 19 tropical low 18.3S 147.6E 55
+6hr 10 am January 19 tropical low 18.4S 147.6E 50
+12hr 4 pm January 19 tropical low 18.5S 147.5E 70
+18hr 10 pm January 19 tropical low 18.3S 147.2E 95
+24hr 4 am January 20 tropical low 18.0S 146.8E 120
+36hr 4 pm January 20 tropical low 17.2S 146.2E 155
+48hr 4 am January 21 tropical low 16.5S 145.9E 190
+60hr 4 pm January 21 tropical low 15.8S 145.8E 225
+72hr 4 am January 22 tropical low 15.0S 145.6E 265
Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.



And just for comparison, in the greater scheme of things...

Edited by user Tuesday, 19 January 2021 7:16:52 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified