The monsoon trough looks active all this week at least
Cross equatorial strong of the NW of Darwin.
The chance for cyclogenesis is high as this is coupled with strong inflow into the southern flank of the trough courtesy of some strong mid latitude highs currently.
Here is a snap of wind fields showing this tropical low off NW Darwin already has good symmetry. ACCESS g suggests this will continue in the next week with rapid intensification. A small but deep TC. ACCESS has this TC maintains significant strength even after landfall.
Later in the week say Friday/Saturday. The monsoon trough establishes in the coral sea off the far north coast. There are 2 cross equatorial infeeds into the peninsula and coral region and strong high pressure underneath to give her a spin of possible multiple tropical lows.
Firstly hear are the current promising wind fields just off the coast of Nw Darwin today. Nicely intact with good symmetry!

Edited by user Tuesday, 19 January 2021 1:00:41 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

I'm more interested in what GFS has in the gulf a week or so out.
It's been there for a few days now.



Cheers

ACCESS g showing a low in the gulf Wednesday. Trying to build some momentum on the western coastline.

ACCESS suggesting our little friend over in WA is not going to go quietly. Some amazing bursts of extreme weather as it transitions SE through the interior and into SA. Then links in to southern troughing to give southern VIC a touch up.
Could’ve an interesting weather watch this week.


http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml

Edited by user Friday, 22 January 2021 2:01:52 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

I managed a station on the Nullabore in the '90's any real rain had to come for a cyclone crossing
the Pilbara coast and tracking down through the deserts of WA. We had a record of 22" about '93
Plenty of historical tracks to show that.
This little low could do wonders for all that inland country.


I'm still keen on a good gulf low/cyclone, the right setup could give a lot of inland QLD a much needed drink.


Cheers

ACCESS g next Saturday 30thJan 2021
Cyclone on the far north coast,
It is likely to initialise this Tuesday in the gulf as a small tropical low.
Then slowly build ( cyclogenesis) across the top of the peninsula.

Edited by user Sunday, 24 January 2021 4:34:56 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Yeah the Low in the gulf looks to be developing nicely.
Could be an interesting week of weather.


Cheers

Downgrade for the expected TC in the gulf. By BOM.
Currently a tropical low and looks to cross the tip in the coming days as such
ACCESS g has this re intensifying in the coral sea. Current advice by BOM is that it will not impact coast.
I think l will keep an open mind here. The gulf prediction didn’t eventuate so maybe the tracking in the coral may change..
Here in ACCESS for next sunday. TC looks close to the coast here
Note the 3 active cyclones on this snap attached to an active monsoon trough

Edited by user Wednesday, 27 January 2021 1:19:05 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

ACCESS g has the coral low intensifying and tracking east during the week heading to the usual Pacific islands. High pressure keeps the TC from transitioning toward our coast.
That is current forecast of course.
The tropical low on the western coast is expected to slide SW down the coast and intensify.(ACCESS )

BOM tracking has this as a cyclone putting its eye in the water 1st Feb and off shore Port Hedland CAT 2.

Thanks Pabloako for some alternative forecasts from other models. Very interesting 😄

ACCESS g has a tropical low up west of the gulf next Saturday ( 6 days time). I thought to check surface windstreams in the greater Asia region to see if the monsoon indeed is still active. The answer is yes. Good cross equatorial. There is every chance for some new tropical lows to spin up if we get some strong High pressure passing through as well.

Thanks yasi ‘ for that snap of SH. Good find!