The second last model run is still going for an early rainfall onset for the 2021–22 season across most of northern Australia.
All the runs of this model haven't varied,- so maybe they'll get this one right. The last run is on 26 August.



The Onset Date is defined as the date when at least 50 mm of rainfall has accumulated after 1 September.
Parts of coastal Queensland and the western Top End typically accumulate 50 mm by late October or early November, spreading further south and inland over following weeks.

The bureau has really butchered this year so far in terms of rainfall, if we didnt get that big wet in april the wet season would have been a fizzer and they didnt predict that until last minute. They also have said continually for last 3 months that winter was going to be drier than average yet the opposite has happened just about every station is at above average rainfall across the board some well above average. The only thing they have managed to get right is that temperatures would be above average all winter and that has been true.

I actually write down the predictions they give for rain for the month ahead and then compare to what we actually get, for the last 2 months they have said my area has a 75% chance of 10-25mm for the month yet both months have been over 90mm, this month they also said 10-25mm and im already at 61mm ........ anyway i know they have a hard job maybe we will get an early wet maybe not.

Where are you talking about ? Cairns aero? I think you are agreeing with what i was saying? Winter on average (not just cairns aero but especially across cassowary coast stations and douglas shire stations are all above average and well above average especially around innisfail. Most stations are ahead of their yearly average some way ahead (ie tully is already over 4200mm to end of july already over yearly average)

The bureau at least for the douglas shire has forecast a 10-25mm 75% chance for each month for last 3 months yet my own reading as well as whyanbeel are in the 90mm range each month. March was a complete failure across the board with feburary not much better, january and april did the heavy lifting for the wet season. By the end of the year the majority of stations will be well well above average i would expect tully and cape tribulation to go into the 5000mm+ range

Yeh fair call mate I was probably exaggerating it a bit calling it a fizzer. Im currently at 2600mm and would think that i should go over 3000mm by the end of the year, Bunyip looks to be set to go well into the 4000mm range but i reckon the big hit out will be between cape tribulation and tully, cape trib hasn't uploaded data for a few months but they were almost neck and neck with tully and I have been seeing them get hammered on the radar in recent months. Babinda hasn't reported since early july which i find frustrating and bizzare considering it is the ultra heavy weight for contests between towns, would think they would be eager to post their data to BOM frequently. Innisfail wharf is also punching way above its weight with around 3500mm already and another 160mm+ this month with more to come this weekend.

Another week of showers coming up according to the bureau seems to have been a cycle all winter. Few sunny days followed by a week of showers or overcast weather at least around here. Wouldn't be surprised if we end up with 90mm+ here for another month well above average.

Yesterday late afternoon, and this afternoon, looked like it "could rain but it won't". Checking radar, a few showers over to the southwest, which of course just slipped south, both days.

August ended for me with a total of 88.5mm well above average, average min of 18.2 and av max of 25.5. Looks like some big totals to accrue over next 48 hours. Cairns seems to have missed most of the rain this month, usual heavy weights babinda and topaz looked to have topped the charts for the month.

Bureau have been forecasting 10-25mm for the whole month of September for my area pretty sure we will get at least that in the next 2 days.....

Bunyip your not wrong this is very interesting ive been watching the radar all day as i do, rain falling around locations close to the base of the mountains bugger all falling along the coast. I havent been home yet but looks like ive been missing it all but whyanbeel 4km to the west looks to have been copping it all day. Same as down around innisfail totals around the coast are small at this stage let inland around menavale, japoonvale etc they are over 150mm already since 9am!!!! Be interesting to see what happens overnight but looks like some of those places just inland from innisfail are going to post massive totals.

Well how's that ay.

Been wet all day with some solid downpours in Goldsborough Valley today, but as I drove into Cairns around 430pm some section of road were dry but some creeks were flowing good off the mountains.

Ha ha we're getting the stormy winds, but nought else. 😁😁

Edited by user Tuesday, 31 August 2021 6:59:01 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified