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Offline ronfishes  
#61 Posted : Wednesday, 6 December 2023 5:31:57 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gone tropo Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Sheridan Mist Go to Quoted Post
The position of the cyclone at the moment looks like a lose-lose situation for the NTC&T. If it comes our way it could be a severe one which we don't want. If it tracks the way the GFS model is predicting, South, we may continue in our desert conditions.

YTD: 2193.5mm


These were my thoughts exactly, certainly dont want it here but if it goes south we are in for some even worse hot weather if thats possible with still no rain and crunchy grass for early-mid decemeber


Current forecast for Cairns on Monday is 37c!
Records for 2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm 2024: 951.6mm (no records April-Sept)
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28degrees on 6/12/2023(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#62 Posted : Thursday, 7 December 2023 9:32:25 AM(UTC)
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0.5mm here for the first week of the month. Temp range of 26-38°C so a hot dry start to summer. Bit of a shock this morning, it's cool and trying to rain.

YTD: 2193.5mm
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28degrees on 7/12/2023(UTC)
Offline scott123  
#63 Posted : Thursday, 7 December 2023 10:50:13 AM(UTC)
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Light showers on the back of a SE breeze down here as well this morning...bit cooler here too thankfully..

JTWC and Bom have FNQ in the cyclones sights though all (except Higgins who made mention of the possibility of Cat5 to get his name on the news)) show unfavourable atmospheric conditions leading to weakening winds as it approaches the coast...50-60 knots isnt much more then a breezy winters day in Cooktown..

Guess we will wait and see if that holds true later in the week....as with the temps..we all know its never much fun to be north of a decent blow in the days after...

Do you have a link to the GFS model, SM...?

Edit ...latest BOM track has it turning sharply and heading even further north...hope it doesnt do a loopty-loop and hang around preparing for an assault on the coast..

Edited by user Thursday, 7 December 2023 11:49:37 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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28degrees on 7/12/2023(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#64 Posted : Thursday, 7 December 2023 12:19:24 PM(UTC)
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I use the 'Tropical Tidbits' site Scott. At the last pass it's showing it crossing between your area and about Ingham.

YTD: 2193.5mm
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28degrees on 7/12/2023(UTC), scott123 on 7/12/2023(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#65 Posted : Thursday, 7 December 2023 6:40:37 PM(UTC)
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Now Jasper is curving further north.
JTWC Warning #10 has it tracking just north of Willis Island, looking at Cooktown.
https://www.metoc.navy.m...jtwc/products/sh0324.gif

Originally Posted by: scott123 Go to Quoted Post
Do you have a link to the GFS model, SM...?

This the one Scott?
https://www.pivotalweath...p;r=au&dpdt=&mc=

Edited by user Thursday, 7 December 2023 6:45:57 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Sheridan Mist on 7/12/2023(UTC), scott123 on 7/12/2023(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#66 Posted : Thursday, 7 December 2023 9:18:25 PM(UTC)
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Still no rain here. Don't you hate these coral sea cyclones, it's as if you have to risk getting your roof blown off to get some decent rain. I much prefer the ones in the gulf.

YTD: 2193.5mm
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28degrees on 7/12/2023(UTC)
Offline scott123  
#67 Posted : Friday, 8 December 2023 9:31:53 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: 28degrees Go to Quoted Post
Now Jasper is curving further north.
JTWC Warning #10 has it tracking just north of Willis Island, looking at Cooktown.
https://www.metoc.navy.m...jtwc/products/sh0324.gif

Originally Posted by: scott123 Go to Quoted Post
Do you have a link to the GFS model, SM...?

This the one Scott?
https://www.pivotalweath...p;r=au&dpdt=&mc=


Thanks 28...

As you mention most models seem to be showing that north of Cairns type area now...

If it weakens as some suggest and hits as a nice big sloppy windy Low then we will all be in for quite a well needed drenching next week...

Lol SM..dont worry mate as long as you haave screws instead of nails holding your roof down I dont think you have much to worry about..I might do a bit of a gutter clean-out though which i wont have to do much of anymore with all the large trees finally gone from around my shack.

and the boffins at the BOM have decided not to shut down the Townsville radar for most of the cyclone season for upgrades as planned...hard to believe they were even considering doing that over the wet season..

Edited by user Friday, 8 December 2023 10:11:52 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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28degrees on 8/12/2023(UTC)
Offline Gone tropo  
#68 Posted : Friday, 8 December 2023 9:44:41 AM(UTC)
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most models are showing a direct hit on us here in the douglas shire at this stage. This weekend is going to be busy in preparation a lot of heavy lifting.
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monkeybusiness on 8/12/2023(UTC), 28degrees on 8/12/2023(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#69 Posted : Friday, 8 December 2023 10:25:41 AM(UTC)
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It is hard to believe they shut down radars during the wet. Anyway, it is starting to look impressive on the sat pics.

YTD: 2193.5mm
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monkeybusiness on 8/12/2023(UTC), 28degrees on 8/12/2023(UTC)
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#70 Posted : Friday, 8 December 2023 11:56:38 AM(UTC)
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Been to town and got gas, fuel & beer. That should do us for a couple of weeks :)
Just looking at Woolies was enough for me.


Nice heavy shower here this morning around 06:30 with about 5 mm , will check later.


Not going to do anything yet, even put cattle on the river block for a few days, they might
as well eat that grass now because if we do get a wet Low they won't be back down there for a bit.

:Rant:
On another note I'm so sick of hearing about extreme heat wave conditions. It's bloody summer and
as far as I'm aware we have had plenty of weather just like this every year about this time.
I've been welding and working in the sun and I'm sure I've worked in hotter weather before.
:End Rant


Cheers



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monkeybusiness on 8/12/2023(UTC), 28degrees on 8/12/2023(UTC)
Offline scott123  
#71 Posted : Friday, 8 December 2023 1:04:24 PM(UTC)
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Latest JTWC track shows it heading to your house Bunyip...fortunately just cat 1 though ..

I hope Dormant has packed away the garden furniture and trimmed the trees...

The models I have looked at seem to be pretty fixed on that Cairns to Cooktown crossing area....How confident are we all that wont change to have a dip down here in Cyclone alley..?

and newsflash..summer in Australia can and does get bloody hot doesnt it Bunyip..BigGrin ..My family have had mixed farms down near Moree for 4 generations....40c plus days in Summer were just as common when I was a kid 40-50 years back as they are now...

Edited by user Friday, 8 December 2023 2:58:21 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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28degrees on 8/12/2023(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#72 Posted : Friday, 8 December 2023 2:05:56 PM(UTC)
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It does look like Cooktown Cairns now.
JTWC track has dropped below Willis Island instead of above it.

Currently Cat 4, and Zoom Earth shows it still as a Cat 3 just off Cairns.
https://zoom.earth/storm...per-2024/#overlays=fires

Certainly will be an interesting one.

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Sheridan Mist on 8/12/2023(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#73 Posted : Friday, 8 December 2023 2:58:47 PM(UTC)
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If it does cross just to the north of Cairns 28, it's been a while since that happened. Last one I can remember was Cyclone Steve over 20 years ago.
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28degrees on 8/12/2023(UTC), monkeybusiness on 8/12/2023(UTC)
Offline Gone tropo  
#74 Posted : Friday, 8 December 2023 3:28:12 PM(UTC)
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SM we copped cyclone rona smack bang over us in 1999, was a marginal cat 3 i remember it clearly we had no power at wonga beach for a week and i remember going down to the beach the next morning and never forget the size of the waves like gold coast surf never seen it like that to this day.

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Sheridan Mist on 8/12/2023(UTC), monkeybusiness on 8/12/2023(UTC), 28degrees on 9/12/2023(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#75 Posted : Friday, 8 December 2023 4:05:14 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Sheridan Mist Go to Quoted Post
If it does cross just to the north of Cairns 28, it's been a while since that happened. Last one I can remember was Cyclone Steve over 20 years ago.

I was in Cairns preceding Yasi. So many people were just not concerned.

Originally Posted by: Gone tropo Go to Quoted Post
i remember going down to the beach the next morning and never forget the size of the waves like gold coast surf never seen it like that to this day.

That would've been something to see.
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Sheridan Mist on 8/12/2023(UTC), monkeybusiness on 8/12/2023(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#76 Posted : Friday, 8 December 2023 4:19:46 PM(UTC)
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I remember Cyclone Rona well tropo. It was quite a nasty one in your area.

Edit: Amazing 28, if your not concerned with a
Cat5 coming in there's something wrong.

Edited by user Friday, 8 December 2023 4:31:09 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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monkeybusiness on 8/12/2023(UTC), 28degrees on 8/12/2023(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#77 Posted : Saturday, 9 December 2023 9:33:25 AM(UTC)
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We also had Cyclone Justin in 97 which trashed many of the Cairns marina floating pontoons. There seemed to be a little cyclone alley between Cairns and Daintree in the late 90s.
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28degrees on 9/12/2023(UTC)
Offline scott123  
#78 Posted : Saturday, 9 December 2023 11:36:28 AM(UTC)
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Justin was a strange one for sure...

For a cyclone that hit land at only cat 2 I guess it goes to show even a relatively small blow can cause quite a bit of property damage around Cairns and then it wiped out half the banana industry as it headed to the tablelands and turned south on its way to townsville.

We were renting at Mission beach at the time and after the hype of the cyclone were left pretty dissapointed but relieved and wondered what all the fuss was about..

Memories of that may have been why many were so hugely concerned when Yasi was initially predicted to landfall around Cairns as a cat 5..

and then we still have the scaremongers in the press and weather fraternity putting out stuff like this headline yesterday...Worse then Yasi..hmmm..?..


https://www.geelongadver...onymous&mode=premium


The missus was at the supermarket in Tully yesterday and said the shelves were stocked and it was business as usual..

latest tracks have it dipping south of Willis island but always being pushed northward towards the approach..

From previous experiences its hard not to think the steering influences will lessen and it will dip down towards us whilst rapidly intensifying...or maybe thats just leftover PTSD from Larry and Yasi..BigGrin
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28degrees on 9/12/2023(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#79 Posted : Saturday, 9 December 2023 2:11:00 PM(UTC)
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You're right about the southward drift of cyclones Scott. Even Cyclone Winifred in 1986 was on approach to Cairns, 100kt at Green Island, when it turned south and crossed at Kurrimine Beach. Did a lot of damage to Mission Beach and huge floods in Tully Gorge. We still got a good touch up here in Cairns.

Edit: We were staying at the mum-in-laws at the time and were hiding inside. A good 80kt westerly outside.

Edited by user Saturday, 9 December 2023 2:22:45 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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28degrees on 9/12/2023(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#80 Posted : Saturday, 9 December 2023 6:30:32 PM(UTC)
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JTWC still showing Warning 17 with Jasper headed for Cape Trib. Must be about time for an update from them.

Zoom Earth now has it back halfway between Cairns and Port Douglas. Bit tricky to judge with the latest BOM track at 4.49pm.
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monkeybusiness on 9/12/2023(UTC), Sheridan Mist on 9/12/2023(UTC)
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