Can someone tell me the firast streght of the jet stream between australia and nz for this saturday

Today the dew point rose in the morning, became briefly moderately high (19 C) in the morning before dropping back this afternoon while remaining near average. Quite variable and near average temperature during today in partly cloudy skies. Near average relative humidity. Light E to NNE winds today, ESE to NE later in the afternoon and E to NE this evening.

Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 16 Oct 2019
Time: 7:40 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 17.1 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 28.7 C
Min Ground Temp: 15.3 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0.1 mm

Temperature: 21.1 C
Relative Humidity: 85 %
Dew Point: 18.5 C
MSL Pressure: 1016.3 hPa
Wind Speed: Calm
Wind Direction: Calm

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km
Cloud Cover: 8/8
Ground State: Ground moist
Thunder yesterday: Yes

Notes of yesterday weather - 15/10/19: Cloudy with cu and as clouds, partly cloudy with cu clouds from late morning. Light showers and mild thunderstorm in the early hours with light to moderate falls clearing in the early morning. A cool morning and variable temperature in the morning and afternoon. Smoke haze. Near average dew point rose from early in the day, before generally falling in the afternoon and stable from the late afternoon. In the late morning the dew point became briefly moderately high. Light and variable winds early mostly W to SSW and N to NE, calm between 5am and 8am, ENE to NNE from am ESE to NE from late morning, ENE to NNE from late afternoon and ENE to NE later in the evening.

Today: A warm morning. Dew point have been near average and have been rising in the last few hours and is almost moderately high. Near average relative humidity. Light N to NE winds becoming calm in the early hours and ENE to NNE in the last 20 minutes.

I think many things look favourable on Thursday including the shear conducive for severe storms and the strong steering winds aloft although not everything's ideal.
For example, I'd rather the midlevels be colder (but if surface heating is intense enough, there should still be enough instability for storms), capping along some parts of the coast, and the NW to W component to the flow through a deep slab of the atmosphere. The southerly change pushing up the NSW coast shouldn't play a major role for SE QLD, given it's not due to reach this region until early Friday morning.

One of the many favourable things though is the fact that the stronger part of the upper trough will stay south which means there's a lower risk of prolonged extensive cloud cover and rainfall lasting through the whole morning and inhibiting storms.

While overall rainfall amounts look pretty modest as far as our own region goes (especially due to the speed of any showers and storms), there could be some lucky places which get higher amounts if they get under any of the heavier activity.

So here's how I think Thursday will play out:

1️⃣ Overnight tonight/very early Thu morning could see some additional localised activity moving across inland areas near the QLD/NSW border as well as the northern tablelands and some parts of the MNC coast.
2️⃣ While early morning may see some cloud cover over parts of SE QLD, models suggest much of this may decrease later in the morning.
3️⃣ Mostly sunny hot weather then dominating with daytime max temps rising to a number of degrees above the October average (but the coastal fringe should stay a lot cooler than inland).
4️⃣ Strong northerly winds developing along QLD's southern coastal fringe & islands... as well as strong westerlies along the Great Dividing Range from VIC, through NSW (where they could even be locally damaging), and to the southeastern Darling Downs in QLD in the wake of the approaching front.
5️⃣ During the middle of the day, a band of low-rainfall showers & storms starts firing up over the central and southeastern interior of QLD as well as inland NE NSW. This band then steadily marches eastwards, possibly as a squall line, towards the southern QLD coast.
The strong shear also means that some locations could also get a severe storm with brief damaging winds or large hail (moreso for any individual storms separate from any squall line).
NE NSW is also a bit complicated where the further south you go, the earlier the drier W to NW flow breaks through to the coast and therefore, the lower the chance of storms.
6️⃣ Later in the afternoon or early evening looks to be the make or break time as far as the coast goes.

Inland locations look an almost certainty and the coast also looks a reasonable chance - but the latter zone looks like one of those setups where there's a fine line between the strong steering winds aloft dragging the activity to the entire SE QLD coast (and even intensifying/growing there after eroding any capping and ingesting the higher surface dewpoint air in the northerly flow as well as interacting with a bit of a seabreeze front).... or weakening in the capped environment. Either scenario looks possible (I'd probably favour the activity reaching the coast but I'm not 100% certain yet).

Thanks Ken
Was about to ask of thoughts on todays set up

Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 17 Oct 2019
Time: 7:40 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 17.6 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 31.1 C
Min Ground Temp: 16.4 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 22.3 C
Relative Humidity: 70 %
Dew Point: 16.6 C
MSL Pressure: 1014 hPa
Wind Speed: 11 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: NNE

Present Weather: Clouds generally dissolving or becoming less developed during the preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 3/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 16/10/19: Cloudy with sc clouds early, partly cloudy with cu clouds from late morning and clearing in the afternoon. Smoke haze. A warm morning and a warm day. The dew point was stable and fell in the early hours before rising during the morning and became moderately high in the mid morning before falling back to near average in the late morning. After stabilising in the middle of the day the dew point rose slowly in the early afternoon and then fell during the afternoon and evening whilst remaining near average. Light N to NE winds very early in the day before becoming calm followed by constant N to ENE winds from early morning, E to NE from late morning and N to NE winds in the evening.

Today: Near average dew point have been stable and have started to rise. Light and variable winds at times early today and light N to NE in the last 2 hours.

Looks like things are starting to fire up out west on 512km radar. Very warm here today and quite windy all day. Hoping for a bit of action later.

Been quite strong here on the Sunny Coast since earlier this morning when i woke. Will it help or hinder today's chances?

It has been warming a fair bit today and has reached 32 C and rose quite steadily. Dew point have been stable at 15 C. Light winds and almost moderate from N to NE have become E to SE since later in the morning.

The temperature have started to fall along with a brief increase in dew point while remaining near average. Breezy E to NE winds have continued. Clouds building well to the west viewed from Brisbane.