Originally Posted by: DelBoy 
I saw that too SatMan. Next to zero chance of rain though. A tiny trace amount showing on WATL for Sunday though.
Always worth remembering with those WATL maps that because the minimum threshold for rainfall to show up on there is set to 1mm, it often won't show very low rainfall showers/storms. It's better to check the daily chance of *any* rainfall maps on Meteye.
I haven't had a look at the latest 00z runs of the models yet so not sure if much has changed but going off the detailed look I had this morning of the 12z/18z runs, it looked like some low-rainfall shower and storm activity may develop over some sections of the Downs on Saturday, with just the outside chance of some of this eventually reaching southern/western parts of SE QLD itself later in the day or night (a slightly higher chance further south of northern tablelands activity trying to approach the MNC where the steering winds are stronger and the general NW-SE orientation of the band of activity).
Sunday looks somewhat better for SE QLD and some storms may also try to become severe due to the decent shear but I think there's a few lingering question marks over the extent of the activity and which areas will be favoured.
12z EC was suggesting the change will slow down on Sunday once it reaches the southern QLD coast before temporarily stalling as it meets the NE flow coming onto the coast and the inland westerlies.... and the convergence zone between the three flows just inland of the coast is where it was suggesting some showers and storms to initiate helped by the moisture in the onshore flow, before some of the activity moves eastwards at a reasonable pace.
It then suggests the change will resume its push up the coast on Monday with some storms to its north and west, and cloudier skies behind it with a bit of coastal shower activity.
But the extent and positioning of the activity looks sensitive to the timing and position of the weak coastal S to SE wind change that's expected to stall in the region before pushing through, as well as capping close to the coast.
If the change pushes up the coast earlier than expected on Sun or Mon, the majority of any storm potential would become confined to near the northern and western boundaries of our region ahead of the change (it would also be cloudier).
On the other hand, if the change is delayed, storms may be more extensive and also extend further south in our region.
One thing I think worth keeping an eye on like with other similar setups is that if westerly steering winds aloft are strong enough, they can sometimes advect inland storms all the way to the coast even if there's initial capping there after a change has gone through.
Widespread strong winds also look likely to spread over eastern NSW on Saturday (especially the central & southern ranges where they're likely to reach damaging strength) as well as VIC and southeastern SA near and behind a cold front.... this will also cause fire danger to increase significantly in northern NSW.
Regardless of what happens though, rainfall amounts for most of the locations that will be affected look to be pretty low for Sat/Sun.... maybe somewhat better on Mon but still far from what I'd call exciting.
