Weather Forum
»
Australia Weather
»
Far North Queensland
»
Far North Queensland - Day to Day Weather
Rank: Newbie
Groups: Registered
Joined: 5/01/2021(UTC) Posts: 7  Location: Julatten Qld Thanks: 12 times
Was thanked: 5 time(s) in 4 post(s)
|
I hope I've done this right this time and this link will work?? Hopefully EC have still got things way wrong for the predicted rainfall in the Ross Dam catchment area. I wouldn't imagine it would take too long to fill the dam (currently sitting on 65%) if they were to get that much in three days would it? Although GFS don't agree. cheers https://on.windy.com/4kb5t
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 9/01/2021(UTC)
Posts: 76
Location: Daintree
Thanks: 1 times
Was thanked: 52 time(s) in 42 post(s)
|
Sure looks like it, Weary. And Scott seems to have been very lucky. Strange, BOM seems to expect it to do an about face and L back up slightly offshore whereas JTWC has it curving inland... Edited by user Monday, 18 January 2021 2:22:33 PM(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC) Posts: 536 Location: Daintree Thanks: 345 times
Was thanked: 532 time(s) in 360 post(s)
|
lol Bom have it heading back to the start line, after this false run.
That's the way 28, my phone went nuts with all the once a year/event calls and txt ..lol
Cheers
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 937 Location: Chillagoe Thanks: 1542 times
Was thanked: 526 time(s) in 351 post(s)
|
Originally Posted by: FNQ Bunyip 
lol Bom have it heading back to the start line, after this false run.
That's the way 28, my phone went nuts with all the once a year/event calls and txt ..lol
Cheers
But they're still getting fed shite. Out here I try to tell them the bliidy Featherbeds are in the way, & they still don't get it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/02/2020(UTC) Posts: 80 Location: Holloways Beach Was thanked: 26 time(s) in 24 post(s)
|
Originally Posted by: Weary At least JTWC are honest enough to say they have NFI where it’s going
. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND FLUIDITY IN
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. That's for sure. Just before lunchtime they had it hooking a 90° turn when abeam Cardwell, and heading west / nth west. Seems that Kimi is off on a sunday drive, just pleasing itself.  Edited by user Monday, 18 January 2021 7:13:13 PM(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
|
 1 user thanked Hickory for this useful post.
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 937 Location: Chillagoe Thanks: 1542 times
Was thanked: 526 time(s) in 351 post(s)
|
Kimi is certainly entertaining... Lol. Can't you see her coming back up the coast, reforming in the Coral Sea, & running across the Cape.
|
1 user thanked 28degrees for this useful post.
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC) Posts: 269 Location: Cairns Was thanked: 317 time(s) in 192 post(s)
|
Loving the JTWC remarks, who knew that disagreement in the numerical models was a “squashed spider” and that “low confidence” meant high uncertainty.
WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN EASTWARD TURN. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT (SO CALLED SQUASHED SPIDER)
BUT REFLECTS A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH AN EQUATORWARD TRACK
CHANGE BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
(WITH COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND
STEER IT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72.
DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING INFLUENCES AND POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK
|
2 users thanked Weary for this useful post.
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 937 Location: Chillagoe Thanks: 1542 times
Was thanked: 526 time(s) in 351 post(s)
|
Ho hum...🙄
Wonder how they get squashed spider. I know I'm a bit slow sometimes. Lol.😁
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 937 Location: Chillagoe Thanks: 1542 times
Was thanked: 526 time(s) in 351 post(s)
|
Good morning all.
Looking at Bowen radar this morning out girl has almost disappeared. Now she's a tropical low, likely to head back north again.
Another nice grey day again, probably to become quite muggy.
Haven't looked at the gauge, but be lucky if there's 1mm. 😁
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC) Posts: 269 Location: Cairns Was thanked: 317 time(s) in 192 post(s)
|
Originally Posted by: 28degrees Ho hum...🙄
Wonder how they get squashed spider. I know I'm a bit slow sometimes. Lol.😁 I think it’s cos the models are all saying different directions of movement, so if you show it graphically you get a blob with lots of “legs” sticking out in all directions. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 937 Location: Chillagoe Thanks: 1542 times
Was thanked: 526 time(s) in 351 post(s)
|
That sounds about right. Lol.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 6/03/2020(UTC) Posts: 324 Thanks: 99 times
Was thanked: 473 time(s) in 242 post(s)
|
Hmm..squashed spider huh..? I'd think that would have to go down as one of the worst cyclone forecasting events I have ever seen... Why do they bother with track maps at all if they have NFI..? Edited by user Tuesday, 19 January 2021 9:45:31 AM(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 5/03/2020(UTC) Posts: 63 Location: el arish Was thanked: 34 time(s) in 20 post(s)
|
We have been running blind since Thursday, NBN box decided it wanted to shat itself, so no phone nor internet since then. we are with spintel and i can say they are much better than telstra! rang once to inform them, then contacted them again yesterday, just to confirm when they were coming, was told they would be here between 8am-12 today. he was here slightly after 8 am this morning. Not much fun trying to stand in in the back paddock like the statue of Liberty with a mobile and an umbrella  Anyway, the sun has come out this morning, but apparently that is not going to last, and the rain will be back by tomorrow or Thursday 1175mm For Jan so far. Needs a few week of dr weather now so everything can dry out and de mould.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 275 Location: Cairns Thanks: 163 times
Was thanked: 296 time(s) in 193 post(s)
|
Lost my NBN modem/router in a storm Saturday week ago. Missus said she heard the lightning go bang and then something went 'pop'! (I was out fishing with the young fella, who incidentally caught his first legal red emperor along with his PB coral trout - but I digress..)
Anyway I went and bought a cheap modem on Sunday but couldn't for the life of me get it hooked up to Telstra. Telstra were beyond useless as it wasn't a telstra modem and the Mumbai bots had NFI
Anyway, new one turned up today and away it went!.
Very muggy when I got home this arvo, some drops were falling out of the thinnest of clouds.. Didn't amount to much. |
Records for 2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm 2024: 951.6mm (no records April-Sept) |
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 937 Location: Chillagoe Thanks: 1542 times
Was thanked: 526 time(s) in 351 post(s)
|
Very muggy here for a while too, then a small passing cell dropped 10mm on us.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 275 Location: Cairns Thanks: 163 times
Was thanked: 296 time(s) in 193 post(s)
|
Remnants of Kimo sitting near Arlington, producing a nice storm on the SW side atm |
Records for 2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm 2024: 951.6mm (no records April-Sept) |
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 937 Location: Chillagoe Thanks: 1542 times
Was thanked: 526 time(s) in 351 post(s)
|
Good morning everyone 😊 Originally Posted by: ronfishes Remnants of Kimo sitting near Arlington, producing a nice storm on the SW side atm There was a bit of lightning in it about 4am, too far away for thunder. 10mm in gauge from a shower about 4pm yesterday. I swear looking at the radar I can still see the rotation and the centre, but it doesn't show on EarthWind or Windy. Edited by user Wednesday, 20 January 2021 6:52:48 AM(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC) Posts: 269 Location: Cairns Was thanked: 317 time(s) in 192 post(s)
|
Originally Posted by: 28degrees Good morning everyone 😊 Originally Posted by: ronfishes Remnants of Kimo sitting near Arlington, producing a nice storm on the SW side atm There was a bit of lightning in it about 4am, too far away for thunder. 10mm in gauge from a shower about 4pm yesterday. I swear looking at the radar I can still see the rotation and the centre, but it doesn't show on EarthWind or Windy. Ex Kimi seems to wobbling around with no sense of direction.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC) Posts: 536 Location: Daintree Thanks: 345 times
Was thanked: 532 time(s) in 360 post(s)
|
Oh it's there 28 don't you worry.
Yes the lights looked good from around 03:00, no thunder here either just the flashes reflecting on the sky.
Only 4mm here this morning, but it is raining lightly now.
It's a good morning as I caught up with a boar that has been giving me the slip for a few days.
Cheers
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC) Posts: 937 Location: Chillagoe Thanks: 1542 times
Was thanked: 526 time(s) in 351 post(s)
|
Originally Posted by: Weary Ex Kimi seems to wobbling around with no sense of direction. She seems to be steadily heading north, at a fair speed. Originally Posted by: FNQ Bunyip Oh it's there 28 don't you worry.
Yes the lights looked good from around 03:00, no thunder here either just the flashes reflecting on the sky.
Only 4mm here this morning, but it is raining lightly now.
It's a good morning as I caught up with a boar that has been giving me the slip for a few days.
Cheers Still see the rotation. Blob to the west now all but disappeared. Still overcast & cool. Nice temperature. Hasn't got muggy, yet. Can you eat the boar, or is it dog food only? Local used to hunt with mates at night. Said they came across a big herd in the dark he thought were cattle at first. We must have zillions of the things here in the north.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Guest (4),
MozSpider-DotBot 1.2
|
Weather Forum
»
Australia Weather
»
Far North Queensland
»
Far North Queensland - Day to Day Weather
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
Important Information:
The Weather Forum uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies.
More Details
Close
