Well it's pretty quiet around here but I'll open this up as it's time our season got going.
No discussion on here when Ruby formed and moved off as expected, and pulled the nice early wet stuff
we were getting away with her.

I have been hearing a few suggestions that things are going to fire up in the gulf soon.

So any forecasts/predictions of possible systems or impact zones. Wild or mild just for a bit of
discussion.
I'll go with a mid March crossing the coast Between Cairns and Cardwell.
And a late April going down the inland and out over Sunshine coast, flooding most of Queensland
and Brisbane again.



Cheers

Well Seth formed and is already impacting beaches with bigger seas.
You lot down south may get a bit of action. Enjoy.


Cheers

Seems to be that way. Every now and then I check out others but can't find familiar names, and some are extremely quiet. They really did some "book burning" when they shut down the Weatherzone forum.

You're right there. Had great discussions about weather and I personally learnt a lot through those weatherzone forums. Theres more activity on the ski.com cyclone thread. But I only recognise a couple of familiar faces

That is the bit that is the hardest, we had so many knowledgeable people that were prepared to share how and whys. Now they are all scattered across the internet with no central spot.

Yes I agree 28, cyclones and ski just don't seem like they belong together


Early models are showing a system off our NTC next week, something to watch for now.




Cheers

Totally agree with you guys, real shame.

It's not often the BoM put out the cyclone outlook at 0930.


Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 9:35 am EST on Saturday 8 January 2022
for the period until midnight EST Monday 10 January 2022.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A low is expected to form today in the northern Coral Sea off the far north Queensland coast and initially move to the southeast away from the coast. During Sunday the low is likely to turn to the west towards the coast and approach Cape York Peninsula on Monday. It is now rated a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall to the north of Cooktown, at this stage later Monday or on Tuesday before subsequently moving to the west southwest over land.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:
Very Low
Sunday:
Low
Monday:
Moderate

Yeah Ron I saw that early outlook and wondered if they were getting a little excited :)

Looking forward to some rain, something has to give soon.


Yeah 28 they burned the whole library, shameful that some faceless button pusher can just do that with no accountability.




Cheers

EDIT to add now have a cyclone watch.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 4:35 pm EST on Saturday 8 January 2022

Headline:
Cyclone Watch declared for far north Queensland for a developing tropical low in the northern Coral Sea.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Cape Grenville to Cape Tribulation, including Cooktown.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm AEST [3:30 pm ACST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 12.8 degrees South 147.8 degrees East, estimated to be 405 kilometres northeast of Cooktown and 515 kilometres east northeast of Coen.

Movement: south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is currently moving slowly southeast in the northern Coral Sea. It is expected to start moving to the west on Sunday, possibly crossing the far north Queensland coast later on Monday or Tuesday between Cooktown and Lockhart River. There is a chance it develops into a tropical cyclone before reaching the coast.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving west into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday or Wednesday where is likely to quickly strengthen.



Cheers

Edited by user Saturday, 8 January 2022 5:09:34 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Some nice evening skies. Not holding my breath for the rain.

The mock oranges have finally bloomed today. But they've been known to get confused out here.

Access has a tropical low connected to the monsoon trough developing this week.
However it develops over land in WA. Hovers between the WA and NT border and the coast between port Hedland and Broome.
Of interest is that by next Saturday the monsoon low gathers enough form and momentum to be a CAT 1 at least. Although it won’t be named unless it pushes out to water. He has his toes in the water next Saturday.
This will be interesting. A cyclone forming from land and moving out to sea perhaps. It appears to be fed by copious amounts of water from the monsoon streams.
Reference
http://www.bom.gov.au/au...chartSubmit=Refresh+View

Hi bunyip and all of you up Nth Qld.
ABC talking up the active monsoon they’re expecting something but won’t say what , where or when.
Access still interested in an inland tropical low in WA but a bit later around Monday.

The BOM , EC model 4 day synoptic not in line with Access

You guys might be interested in Access suggesting a coral sea tropical low will form off the nth Qld coast next Monday.

Any other modeling suggesting possible tropical cyclone development?
( l don’t follow other models. One is enough for my purposes)


http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml