Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 10 Nov 2023
Time: 9:10 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 16.6 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 27.7 C
Min Ground Temp: 14.2 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0.4 mm

Temperature: 22.7 C
Relative Humidity: 78 %
Dew Point: 18.6 C
MSL Pressure: 1019.6 hPa
Wind Speed: 4 kph - light air
Wind Direction: NNW

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 7/8
Ground State: Ground wet

Notes of yesterday weather - 9/11/23: Partly cloudy with Cu and Sc clouds. The temperature fell from the start of the day, slightly cool, before rising from early in the morning, close to average being a little variable from the mid to late morning. From late in the morning the temperature rose slowly, slightly cool, before falling from the mid afternoon, easing to near average from the late afternoon. Dew point fell slowly from the start of the day, slightly below average, became near average from late in the early hours, before rising from early in the morning. From the mid morning the dew point fell very slowly, became stable from the late morning, slightly below average, before generally rising slowly from the late afternoon, close to average. Relative humidity rose slowly from the start of the day, close to average, before falling during the morning, slightly below average. In the mid morning the relative humidity became near average. From late in the morning the relative humidity stabilised, before rising from late in the afternoon. Mostly calm winds with some winds of mostly N winds at times in the early hours, before variable winds of mostly N to NE or E to NE winds from the mid morning. Light NNE to ENE winds in the afternoon and early evening. Light N to NE winds in the middle of the evening and calm winds late in the evening.

Today: Light showers at the start of the day, clearing. The temperature fell slowly from early, close to average, before rising from late in the early hours, becoming slightly cool during this morning. Dew point was generally stable in the early hours, close to average, before rising from late in the early hours. Relative humidity rose from the start of the day, close to average, before falling during this morning, slightly above average. Mostly calm winds from early with some variable winds, light ESE to NE winds during this morning, and light N to NE winds in the past hour.

Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 13 Nov 2023
Time: 9:05 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 16.2 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 28.6 C
Min Ground Temp: 13.9 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 26.8 C
Relative Humidity: 60 %
Dew Point: 18.3 C
MSL Pressure: 1016.1 hPa
Wind Speed: 6 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: WNW

Present Weather: Smoke haze
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 1/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 12/11/23: Partly cloudy with Cu and Sc clouds. From the start of the day the temperature rose a little, close to average, before falling slowly afterwards. From early in the morning the temperature rose. From early in the afternoon the temperature fell slowly, and fell more quickly from later in the afternoon, becoming slightly warm in the evening. Dew point rose slightly at the start of the day, close to average, before falling during the rest of the early hours. From early in the morning the dew point rose, before falling slowly from the mid morning. From late in the morning the dew point rose slowly, before falling slowly in the afternoon. In the first half of the evening the dew point rose very slightly, before falling later in the evening. Relative humidity rose slowly from the start of the day, close to average, before falling from early in the morning. From late in the morning the relative humidity fell slowly, became stable from early in the afternoon, before rising from later in the afternoon. Late in the evening the relative humidity became slightly below average. Mostly calm winds from the start of the day, light SW for a period early in the morning before light N to NW winds or NNE to E winds from the mid morning. Light NNE to E winds late in the morning, light NNE to NE winds in the afternoon, light N to NE winds from late in the afternoon, shifting to N to NW from the middle of the evening with some WNW winds.

Today: The temperature fell from the start of the day, slightly warm, easing to near average soon afterwards at the start of the day, before rising from early this morning. Dew point fell slowly, close to average, before rising from early this morning. Relative humidity rose from the start of the day, slightly below average, before falling from early this morning. Light NNW to WNW winds in the first hour of the day, became calm during the early hours, light N to NW winds developed during this morning, shifting to W to NW winds at present.

Another warm humid day ahead for NE NSW and South East Queensland.
Any storm activity will be further to the West from Stanthorpe, Goondawindi, St Geaorge, Moree etc. As for the Coastal areas maybe the odd shower.

Saturday at this stage is looking better for possible storms closer to the Coast and the Ranges. Just need to keep checking the models as we draw closer.

An update on the latest STW for Stanthorpe, Warwick and the Scenic Rim.
Heavy rainfall is leading to some decent totals in those areas .


Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Scenic Rim, Southern Downs, Toowoomba and Lockyer Valley Council Areas.

Issued at 2:01 pm Thursday, 21 December 2023.

Severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have extended into the Lockyer Valley.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 1:55 pm, severe thunderstorms likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding were detected near Oakington, Cunninghams Gap, the area west of Warwick and the area south of the NSW border. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east. They are forecast to affect the area northwest of Warwick, the area south of Toowoomba and Moogerah by 2:25 pm and Allora, Moogerah Dam and Aratula by 2:55 pm.

79.0 mm was recorded in the 1 hour to 12:09 am at Upper Bracker Creek (west of Stanthorpe).

43.0 mm was recorded in the 1 hour to 12:40 pm at Dalcouth.

There is a very high possibility of a big storm outbreak over the next four days. Please watch and listen for any warnings. I highly recommend that you register for alert text messages which are free for your area (as a general rule they are from your local Council) . At this stage I am having trouble uploading images . Please be careful and be prepared.

Edited by user Wednesday, 27 December 2023 10:10:29 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

As models update and we draw closer to the storms it has the potential to be very nasty even dangerous.
The best I can do is post the ABC article with the link. It has been very well written to explain the synopsis of this system.

https://www.abc.net.au/n...christmas-2023/103257550

Violent thunderstorms are likely across eastern Australia this Christmas, rivalling some of the most intense and widespread storm outbreaks of the past few decades.

The spell of explosive thunderstorms will result from an unusual weather pattern in late December — polar air currently escaping from Antarctica will drift directly over south-east states from Christmas Eve to Boxing Day.

Two children, a boy and a girl, play in muddy waters in Western Queensland
Parts of Australia have seen widespread flooding, bushfires and a tropical cyclone in recent days.(Supplied: Tara Rule)
The arrival of a wintery air mass in a hostile summertime environment will create an exceptionally volatile atmosphere, capable of producing severe thunderstorms from northern Queensland to southern Victoria.

While severe storms are not ideal for Christmas, it's still a more favourable forecast than widespread flooding, bushfires or a tropical cyclone.

Storm potential nearing theoretical maximum

Thunderstorms develop when warm, moist air sits below cold air, and the set-up of polar air drifting over high temperatures and humidity up and down the eastern seaboard is the perfect recipe for a major storm outbreak.

a graph of southeast australia shows a pool of cold polar air sweeping across
A pool of cold polar air will drift over southeast Australia this Christmas. (ABC News)
One measure of storm potential is called Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and the higher the CAPE, the more energy is available for a thunderstorms to grow.

During a standard Australian storm day, CAPE can often reach about 500 to 1,000.

However, modelling of CAPE for this Christmas is forecast to reach up to about 3,000, comparable to instability seen during infamously destructive storm outbreaks across the US plains — the most severe storm-prone region on Earth.

Another consequence of the out of season cold pool will be an

Jetstream forecast expected to enhance thunderstorms
The jet above eastern Australia will further enhance storm intensity, generating organised long-lasting thunderstorms and a high likelihood of supercells, the most dangerous storm type which can produce giant hail and destructive winds.

Storms growing in intensity through weekend

The storm zone today will include most of inland NSW and Queensland, although most storms should remain below the severe intensity.

Saturday forecast rain
Thunderstorms will develop over much of eastern Australia tomorrow.(ABC News)
The peak of the event will arrive from Christmas Eve when the polar air mass and jet arrive.

Tomorrow is likely to produce severe storms across much of Queensland, including Brisbane and northern NSW, possibly down to about Sydney.

While the skies are lighting up for Santa's arrival in the north, further south a developing low-pressure system — as a result of the polar air aloft — will cause areas of heavy rain with embedded storms over southern NSW and parts of Victoria.

a weather map of australia show where rain will fall along eastern australia
Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are likely across much of eastern Australia on Christmas Eve.(ABC News)
Severe Christmas Day storms for eastern capitals

Widespread severe storms will then continue through Christmas Day from tropical Queensland to the Victorian coastline, and have the potential to bring flash flooding, hail and damaging winds to Australia's most populated stretch of coastline.

All eastern capitals could potentially see severe weather from thunderstorms on Christmas Day, and would be rated as a high chance in Brisbane, Sydney, and Canberra.

a weather map of forecast rain along eatern australian states for monday 25 december
A wet and stormy Christmas is forecast for eastern states.(ABC news)
While the most explosive storms impact Queensland and northern NSW, the heaviest rain should fall over Victoria and southern NSW, and areas of localised flooding could even develop into Boxing Day, although for now widespread major river flooding is unlikely.

Severe thunderstorms will continue to impact many parts of eastern Australia on Boxing Day before the polar air mass retreats into the Tasman Sea from Wednesday.


The stormy Christmas will ensure a wet finish to 2023, with an average of 20 to 100 millimetres of rain across the east during the next four days.


Up to 100mm of rain expected along east coast
Complicating the rain forecast is powerful thunderstorms which often produce hyperlocal rain bullseyes, and in some cases well over 50mm could fall in just a few hours.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, areas which happen to lie between storms may only receive a few millimetres

Edited by user Wednesday, 27 December 2023 10:13:16 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Very dangerous storms this evening. SEWS has been to be used

The STW


Transmitters serving the area around the Lockyer Valley, Fernvale and Mount Nebo are REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, GIANT HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in Ipswich and parts of Logan, Somerset, Scenic Rim, Lockyer Valley and Brisbane City Council Areas.

Issued at 9:57 pm Saturday, 23 December 2023.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND GIANT HAIL OCCURRING IN LOCKYER VALLEY


The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 9:45 pm, a VERY DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM likely to produce destructive winds and giant hailstones was detected near Gatton and Grantham. This thunderstorm is moving towards the northeast. It is forecast to affect Hatton Vale by 10:15 pm and Lowood, Fernvale and Mount Nebo by 10:45 pm.

Another severe thunderstorm likely to produce destructive winds, giant hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding was detected near Aratula and Rosevale. This thunderstorm is moving towards the east. It is forecast to affect Boonah, Mulgowie and Grandchester by 10:15 pm and Ipswich, Beaudesert and the area between Boonah and Beaudesert by 10:45 pm.

37mm was recorded in 30 minutes at Upper Bracker Creek to 7:04PM

7cm hail observed at Flagstone Creek

Last night, 25 December 2023, deadly storms swept through Jimboomba, Helensvale, Oxenford and down the Gold Coast. Unfortunately a woman in her 50’s died when a tree branch landed n her. The damage was caused by a microburst and a tornado. When hit speeds equivalent to that of a category 2 cyclone.

Below some of the damage.







Below is the doppler image with the suspected tornado

Some f the hail that hit from the storms we have had. A possible record was had at Burpengary on Sunday 24 Dec, 15-6 cm.



Gatton, Dayboro and other places also were hammered with large hail.





Large supercell over Morayfield Sunday afternoon

Edited by user Tuesday, 26 December 2023 7:24:00 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Still a possibility of storms today and some being severe. Storms look to be more isolated than the previous 4 days, so a more of a hit and miss chance in simple terms. Over the next 2 days , Thursday and Friday there is a very slight chance we could hear just a rumble or too and maybe a a few showers.
Then storms should ramp up once again just in time for the weekend.



You can see by EC that storms are more scattered on the modelling.

Here are the LI,s, cape and forecast sounding, still has the potential to fire off some storms. When the official sounding comes out we will get a better look at what is happening up through the atmosphere.