A new thread opened for the 2024 calendar year day to day general weather discussion.

Latest STW

https://www.abc.net.au/n...-new-years-day/103276844



A severe weather warning has been issued for the already-battered Gold Coast and Scenic Rim areas, with the Bureau of Meteorology warning of localised intense rainfall and the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding on New Year's Day.

Large parts of Queensland's south-east are on alert for heavy rain from a slow-moving thunderstorm, with isolated 24-hourly rainfall totals of more than 250 millimetres possible.

The Bureau has extended its warning area as far north as Gympie.

Upper Springbrook copped 389mm of rain in 24 hours to 9am on New Year's Day, while Wongawallan recorded 119mm in just two hours.

Little Nerang Dam recorded 276mm in 24 hours, with 264mm falling at Hotham Creek near Pimpama and 215mm at Binna Burra.



Scenic Rim Mayor Greg Christensen encouraged residents to shelter in place, with several roads in the council area closed due to flooding.

"It's clear that there will be instability from such an intense event," he said.

"That just runs the risk of more things coming down, landslips coming down, we don't want people caught in dangerous places because that just creates another need for a response."

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) have already been called to "multiple flood-related incidents" today.

Flood warnings have been issued for the Nerang and Coomera Rivers, with creek level rises also observed around the Mudgeeraba, Tallebudgera and Currumbin Creeks.

The Bureau predicts rapid rises will continue for the Pimpama, Nerang and Coomera Rivers during periods of intense rainfall, which are forecast to continue for the next day or two.

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A bit of normality has returned to our weather. I hope everyone pulled through OK or if you were impacted by the devastation I hope you are all getting the help that is needed.

The weather is looking more like scattered showers although BoM have stated possible storms over the next few days. The modelling system for the rest of this week appears to only show the possibility ( slim) of maybe just weak thundery storms. Nothing big or severe is showing up at this stage. On the weekend there is more of a chance for storms but not real severe at this stage and if they get organised. Next week could see some slightly bigger storms but it is a bit too far out to call it. Just need to check the modelling each day and see how everything pans out.

Friday 5 January 2024. The models are pointing to widespread showers with possible storms. At this stage storms are not expected to be severe. In saying that there is still a slight chance of the odd cell or two that could go against the trend. This would be the inland Southern interior and possibly in the SEQLD and NE NSW area and the reason for saying this is due to the storm system that lashed Sydney yesterday and surrounds is expected to move forward in Northerly direction into those areas.

But going from the modelling systems, they are not picking up severe storms at this stage. TotalTotals (TT’s) at this stage have a value of 43. This indicates isolated weak storms, unlike the TT’s of 56 last week that saw destructive storms over a large area.

On the sounding the cap has a minus 1.3°C which means storms could fire of very easily. So from all the modelling system, in reality we could see widespread thundery showers or just showers.
But it is just worth keeping an eye on any warnings for the slight chance any cells do become severe.

The forecast sounding has a lot of moisture pointing towards showers. ( Be interesting to see the realtime comparison from the airport sounding this morning.



BoMs meteye has widespread showers/storms or if you wish thundery showers.



The last 3 are the GFS and EC stormcast. Low Li’s and cape values.

Sunday 7 January looks like it is a stop rewind and play the same weather as we had on Saturday. Possible showers but just a degree or 2 hotter than yesterday. Fortunately we don’t have the terrible heat back yet.
It will be definitely worthwhile to keep an eye on the charts forTuesday and Wednesday as it is showing to the probability of some storms for this area within the thread.

Have a great Sunday.

Edited by user Sunday, 7 January 2024 1:24:33 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Missed out the “the” before the word probability . 😳😵‍💫😜

This morning’s sounding from the Brisbane Airport shows a lot of moisture within the highlighted atmosphere. Indicates we may see more showers than first was forecast for the area. Winds are pushing showers onshore and a trough further south is pushing a band of showers over NSW towards the east coast.

Edited by user Monday, 8 January 2024 11:16:14 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Latest Storm warning for Heavy Rainfalls

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Rainfall accumulation throughout the Southeast



It looks like we are in for the same weather pattern tomorrow. Storms are possible for heavy rain. Maybe a few rumbles in those embedded cells.
Just please watch and listen for any warnings that may be issued.

Please just keep an eye on the radar or look and listen for any possible storm warnings this afternoon.
I am keeping things simple and not going into what the models are indicating etc.

I had an eye opener yesterday and this morning. So many people are not copping with what has and is happening with the weather since we were hit with all the severe storms, floods and cyclones across Australia. People are hurting so bad. Some right now can’t see a way out. If you are struggling please reach out and talk.

On here if you want to join in on the forum and post in this thread please feel free. Even if it is something like it is hot here! It’s raining or if you want to post a little bit more technical please do so. I try and keep everything as simple as possible. I could write some forecast and use words that may go over some peoples heads and get to technical.

I read many years ago that weather should be presented in a way that everyone can understand.
So please feel free to join in. There are other threads as you would know for other areas right around the world on this forum.

Paul has created a fantastic forum here so please join in on the conversation.

If you are struggling and have been affected by these storms I am so sorry, but also please seek help and talk.

Stay safe.

Colin

Edited by user Tuesday, 9 January 2024 2:50:12 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified