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Offline scott123  
#341 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 11:16:43 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Sheridan Mist Go to Quoted Post
It looks like most of the rain is north of it.


Yep it is indeed...and set to continue ue that trend...any thoughts on why..?

28c, lightly spitting but heavily overcast with no breeze down here at 11.18am ..strange day indeed...

cyclone kirrily radar.png

kirrily gfs rain.png

Edited by user Thursday, 25 January 2024 11:23:19 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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monkeybusiness on 25/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#342 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 11:24:21 AM(UTC)
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I think it’s cos there is big blob of dry air to the south that the cyclone is drawing in rather than the normal humid air being sucked in from the maritime influence.
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monkeybusiness on 25/01/2024(UTC), FNQ Bunyip on 25/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#343 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 12:30:39 PM(UTC)
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Also, JTWC is saying the rainfall is being displaced north by southerly vertical wind shear.
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monkeybusiness on 25/01/2024(UTC), FNQ Bunyip on 25/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#344 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 12:38:47 PM(UTC)
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No rain at Chillagoe. Lightly overcast at 7am.

Started light "sprinkle" in Mareeba. Light drizzle in Atherton, which became slightly heavier. Not enough to stop you walking short distances.

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monkeybusiness on 25/01/2024(UTC), FNQ Bunyip on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#345 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 12:50:44 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Sheridan Mist Go to Quoted Post
Also, JTWC is saying the rainfall is being displaced north by southerly vertical wind shear.


Wait a minute, are you suggesting that a group of meteorological experts with entire resources of the US military backing them know more than a random guy on the internet with an iPad???? 😁😂😁😂
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monkeybusiness on 25/01/2024(UTC), ronfishes on 25/01/2024(UTC), scott123 on 25/01/2024(UTC), FNQ Bunyip on 25/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#346 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 12:55:13 PM(UTC)
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Hmmm, Flinders reef is getting gusts up to 77 knots. Cat 3 anyone?
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FNQ Bunyip on 25/01/2024(UTC), monkeybusiness on 25/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#347 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 1:12:52 PM(UTC)
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Not at all Weary, just joining the chat.

The cyclone is starting to look better on the radar.
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scott123 on 25/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline scott123  
#348 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 1:55:37 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Sheridan Mist Go to Quoted Post
Not at all Weary, just joining the chat.

The cyclone is starting to look better on the radar.


I think Weary is just trying to make a funny SM...LOL

Anyway it seems the boffins at JTWC do indeed suggest unfavourable windshear to the south is the culprit in this mixed up spinner....I guess that said then if the windshear wasnt present she could have inensified into a more severe system and not the "dogs vomit" that Ron, rather impolitely, has been calling her..they also suggest she has already reached peak intensity...



kirrily reasoning.png


and just further to weary's funny I found this clip quite good on the actual work and resources that do go into the forecasting that we do often take the p!ss out of....it does indeed make a mockery of blokes like Hollywood Higgins who try and suggest that they can do it better...This is in the USA but it gives an idea of the vast amount of resources that actually go into weather data collection..

Edited by user Thursday, 25 January 2024 2:47:31 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Sheridan Mist on 25/01/2024(UTC), FNQ Bunyip on 25/01/2024(UTC), monkeybusiness on 25/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#349 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 2:25:02 PM(UTC)
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Great vid Scott
WHO KNEW you can use funnel from the rain gauge to help pour the water from the outer cylinder into the inner measuring cylinder.🤔🥴🤪🤪
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Sheridan Mist on 25/01/2024(UTC), FNQ Bunyip on 25/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#350 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 3:07:34 PM(UTC)
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An incredible amount of effort goes into predicting the weather Scott. Thanks for the video. I'll watch the rest of it when I get home.

All good Weary, it was a great reply.
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28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline scott123  
#351 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 3:25:12 PM(UTC)
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Well maybe weary does know more then all those Boffins working tirelessly around the clock...

She is now Cat 3 severe cyclone and swinging a little north of tsville..bugga..

yeah that vid is quite mindblowing to see the staggering coverage from so many data point across the states in even in the air from planes....

and weary does pouring with the funnel make the same cool sound that just pouring straight in does.....I can now tell without even looking when the inner has reached 25mm in there plus or minus about 1mm just from the change in sound..LOL

Edited by user Thursday, 25 January 2024 3:27:07 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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monkeybusiness on 25/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline scott123  
#352 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 5:23:35 PM(UTC)
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Hmmm..went from being pretty cruisey about this one to seeing the upgrade and track slighly further north and thought I'd better run out and close some sheds and doors up and put some straps over my solar hot water system on the roof....get the fuel and gennie sorted etc

Been getting some good bursts of gusts every few minutes from the west down the valley and in between almost nothing ..the last one sounded very loud and was accompanied by a skyfull of leaves and debris and the sounds of cracking branchs as it approached...thought a couple of mature bamboos were going over but thankfully not yet..and bugga all rain...

Might end up being a bit of a mess down Townsville way unfortunately..
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Sheridan Mist on 25/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#353 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 5:46:54 PM(UTC)
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You might be in a similar situation to what Cairns was in with Larry and Yasi Scott. Those strong and gusty westerlies coming down off the range.

25mm here so far today and still raining. For a cyclone so far south, it could be a bit unusual.
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28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline scott123  
#354 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 6:13:18 PM(UTC)
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The old downslope winds SM...?

Never really seen them before to that extent..the cyclones we usually get here are either eyewall or through the eye so it just blasts the absolute cr@p outta everything anyway..first time I have really seen this phenomenon this good...and hasnt been barely a breath of wind since that last gust an hour back that scared the cr@p outta me..

Really weird but hopefully we just get the odd bad gust like that and leave the good stuff for Townsville...

I imagine there will be a lot of power issues around the traps...it doesnt take much..

Bloody mossies have been shocking here the past few days..hopefully it will blow them away...

Edited by user Thursday, 25 January 2024 6:15:59 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#355 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 7:06:24 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: scott123 Go to Quoted Post
Bloody mossies have been shocking here the past few days..hopefully it will blow them away...


They're shocking out here as well. Hardly been bothered by them the last few years, but they're back with a vengeance. I've resorted to the odd mossie coil, which is a sign of extreme desperation...
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monkeybusiness on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#356 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 7:48:13 PM(UTC)
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Mozzies thick here too
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28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#357 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 8:57:07 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: scott123 Go to Quoted Post
I guess that said then if the windshear wasnt present she could have inensified into a more severe system and not the "dogs vomit" that Ron, rather impolitely, has been calling her..

I apologise profusely... for the dogs vomit that has just invaded Townsville..

Records for 2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm 2024: 951.6mm (no records April-Sept)
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28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#358 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 9:08:51 PM(UTC)
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Things may be a little different at Rollingstone though..
Records for 2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm 2024: 951.6mm (no records April-Sept)
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28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#359 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 9:34:15 PM(UTC)
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Your spot on Ron, the Townsville folk would be very happy with 990hpa and 45 knot gusts at 9pm after what they've been fed today. Probably not so happy with the 24mm so far though.
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28degrees on 25/01/2024(UTC), ronfishes on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#360 Posted : Thursday, 25 January 2024 9:54:13 PM(UTC)
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I know it's probably difficult, with such a raggedy system, but I would put the centre 50km NW of TSV @950pm
Records for 2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm 2024: 951.6mm (no records April-Sept)
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