I think it’s cos there is big blob of dry air to the south that the cyclone is drawing in rather than the normal humid air being sucked in from the maritime influence.

No rain at Chillagoe. Lightly overcast at 7am.

Started light "sprinkle" in Mareeba. Light drizzle in Atherton, which became slightly heavier. Not enough to stop you walking short distances.

Hmmm, Flinders reef is getting gusts up to 77 knots. Cat 3 anyone?

I think Weary is just trying to make a funny SM...

Anyway it seems the boffins at JTWC do indeed suggest unfavourable windshear to the south is the culprit in this mixed up spinner....I guess that said then if the windshear wasnt present she could have inensified into a more severe system and not the "dogs vomit" that Ron, rather impolitely, has been calling her..they also suggest she has already reached peak intensity...






and just further to weary's funny I found this clip quite good on the actual work and resources that do go into the forecasting that we do often take the p!ss out of....it does indeed make a mockery of blokes like Hollywood Higgins who try and suggest that they can do it better...This is in the USA but it gives an idea of the vast amount of resources that actually go into weather data collection..

Edited by user Thursday, 25 January 2024 2:47:31 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

An incredible amount of effort goes into predicting the weather Scott. Thanks for the video. I'll watch the rest of it when I get home.

All good Weary, it was a great reply.

Hmmm..went from being pretty cruisey about this one to seeing the upgrade and track slighly further north and thought I'd better run out and close some sheds and doors up and put some straps over my solar hot water system on the roof....get the fuel and gennie sorted etc

Been getting some good bursts of gusts every few minutes from the west down the valley and in between almost nothing ..the last one sounded very loud and was accompanied by a skyfull of leaves and debris and the sounds of cracking branchs as it approached...thought a couple of mature bamboos were going over but thankfully not yet..and bugga all rain...

Might end up being a bit of a mess down Townsville way unfortunately..

The old downslope winds SM...?

Never really seen them before to that extent..the cyclones we usually get here are either eyewall or through the eye so it just blasts the absolute cr@p outta everything anyway..first time I have really seen this phenomenon this good...and hasnt been barely a breath of wind since that last gust an hour back that scared the cr@p outta me..

Really weird but hopefully we just get the odd bad gust like that and leave the good stuff for Townsville...

I imagine there will be a lot of power issues around the traps...it doesnt take much..

Bloody mossies have been shocking here the past few days..hopefully it will blow them away...

Edited by user Thursday, 25 January 2024 6:15:59 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Mozzies thick here too

Things may be a little different at Rollingstone though..

I know it's probably difficult, with such a raggedy system, but I would put the centre 50km NW of TSV @950pm