Great image Ken and thank you for sharing with us.

I had a job several years ago at QLD Government 'Natural Resources and Water' as it was known back then and I used to read the Long Paddock forecasts, because it was the time that Brisbane was in the drought. Anyway, I had completely forgotten about he site and suddenly remembered it the other day. It has improved quite a bit since then and is a lot more readable now!

Here is the link to the Monthly Summary for September and they are not painting a dire forecast, however it is a long range forecast, so I guess it may change. https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/MonthlyClimateStatements/DES-Monthly-Climate-Statement_Sep2019.pdf

As a brief snippet:

Obviously BOM's forecast are generated by meteorologists and pretty beefy computers in Aus and overseas etc... Are DES (Long Paddock) people meteorologists too?

Good find delboy.I just love the look of those blue colors for summer. Bring it on.!

Decent cu cloud development didn't bring further showers before the clouds eased in the afternoon. Near average temperature today, though fluctuated with the passing cu clouds, settling in the afternoon. Dew point and relative humidity have been variable but near average. Light E to NE winds, NNE to NE in the evening and now is calm.

Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 22 Sep 2019
Time: 10:10 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 14.7 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 27.2 C
Min Ground Temp: 12.8 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 24.3 C
Relative Humidity: 54 %
Dew Point: 14.4 C
MSL Pressure: 1025.3 hPa
Wind Speed: 12 kph - gentle breeze
Wind Direction: N

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 40km or more - Excellent Visibility
Cloud Cover: 3/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 21/9/19: Fine. Partly cloudy with cu clouds during the morning, easing in the afternoon. Near average temperatures and was variable from mid morning to mid afternoon. In the late evening the dew point rose. Dew point rose during the early hours and became moderately high in the early morning before returning to near average from the mid morning and which was variable at times. Near average relative humidity and was variable in the late morning and afternoon. Light SW winds in the early morning became E to NE from early morning, and NNW to NE at times in the evening.

Today: Fine and a warm morning. The temperature have been a bit variable with cu clouds so far today. Dew point have been close to average which rose earlier this morning and have since fallen a bit. Near average overnight relative humidity and has fell reasonably quickly this morning. Some NNW winds in the early hours and NNW to NW since 8 am.

BOM have now started adding the T word to some of their forecasts for late next week for Brissy...

Friday
Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west later in the day. Winds northwest to northeasterly and light increasing to 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Saturday
Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west. Light winds

Hi JuztChillin and welcome to our happy family and lovely photographs. What a great part of the world you are in and look at that wondeful blue sky in you second picture.

Slip, slop, slap!

The T word is a bit all over the place ATM for Brisbane. Just using the basics you can see there is no agreement with the models but still it is over 5-6 days off. Still a chance though although not a real stand out “yeah” one yet. Maybe we have to send Ken on holiday again.

GFS isn’t showing much interest, so just posting figures 1 & 2 the LI’s and forecast sounding from this afternoon run for 16:00 Sat. Arvo which had the best chance. Very coastal at this point. I will just post those 2 charts I have the sheer etc but will wait until we get closer and hopefully things will improve.




Now Meteye is happy as Larry the Lizard and showing a widespread chance for Saturday and couple of other days too.

Figure 3



And EC, will it is showing storms around 03:00 Sunday morning. Sounding included.
Figures 4 & 5




Just have to see how it unfolds as we draw closer. We are all storm deprived. Winter deprived and rain deprived. But I think we have had enough of the heat though.

Cheers
Colin