Today, Saturday 8 November 2025 Storm potential.
It is a bit of a long post but I tried to break it down and it may seem I repeat myself in the breakdown.
Edit note; I have had my eye on this for many days. I used EC, GFS, ICON and Access to try and bring this all together from Windy, BSCH, Meteologix, Ventusky, BoM etc.
Overview / Synoptic Picture
(Windy – ECMWF wind field) clearly outlines a broad surface trough stretching from inland NSW through southern and central QLD. The arrows drawn show moisture and energy convergence streaming in from the northeast, meeting drier, slightly cooler air pushing in from the southwest — classic pre-frontal setup.
This alignment suggests a favourable corridor for storm initiation roughly from Moree up through Dalby to inland Gympie and northward.
The second map (rain/thunder parameter) shows a strong signal of convective activity along that same zone by mid-to-late afternoon — with embedded heavier clusters over the Darling Downs extending into the northern NSW slopes.
When you correspond that with GFS you can see the agreement between the models and the areas that should see storms. That same corridor.
Sounding Analysis
Toowoomba (27.5°S / 151.9°E)
* CAPE: ~420 J/kg – modest instability
* Lifted Index: -1.4°C – weakly unstable
* PW (precipitable water): 34 mm – good moisture availability
* Profile: Mid-levels show drying, but low-level moisture is present.
* Interpretation: Enough energy for showers and isolated storms, but widespread severe convection is unlikely here unless local convergence increases (e.g. outflows or orographic lift).
Warwick (28.2°S / 152.0°E)
* CAPE: ~470 J/kg
* Lifted Index: -1.9°C
* K-Index: 37 – moderate storm potential
* Shear (0–6 km): Reasonable but not overly strong; HEL ~38–40
* Interpretation: Slightly more unstable than Toowoomba. Given terrain effects, this area could see a few stronger multicells forming, possibly moving NE toward the Scenic Rim.
Dalby (27.1°S / 151.4°E)
* CAPE: ~340 J/kg
* Lifted Index: -1.3°C
* PW: 33 mm
* Shear: Modest (EHI 0.1–0.2)
* Interpretation: The sounding suggests limited deep instability due to drier mid-levels, but sufficient surface heating and moisture pooling along the trough could help trigger convection later in the day.
Putting It All Together
* The trough axis and NE inflow from the Coral Sea and the Bay ‘s moisture create a fertile environment, but instability and shear are somewhat limited.
* This suggests scattered storms rather than widespread severe outbreaks.
* With PW >30 mm and dewpoints in the mid-teens to low 20s, localized heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail are possible — especially if any cell taps into localized convergence (like the Lockyer Valley or Border Ranges).
* The ECMWF rain/thunder projection supports late afternoon peak activity, roughly 2–5 PM inland, possibly moving eastward after sunset as the upper trough progresses.
Quick technical checklist (what matters next)
* CIN / cap trend — if CIN drops through the morning/afternoon, inland cells can explode. That large cap over Brisbane keeps the coast quieter unless it erodes.
* Surface temps & dewpoints inland (Dalby, Toowoomba, Moree, Warwick, Gympie): dewpoints rising into the mid–high teens is a red flag.
* Boundary locations — trough, outflow lines, sea-breeze collisions. Where a front/boundary intersects the moist warm air is the most likely initiation line.
* Satellite (WV/IR) — watch for moist plume advance from the NE and rapid cloud-top cooling where convective tops grow.
* Radar — first inland cells, their intensity and outflows heading east (these often trigger coastal storms).
* Low-level shear / SRH near boundaries — even modest increases with a boundary can raise the chance of rotating cores.
* Model agreement — if ECMWF, ICON and newer GFS runs converge on stronger/moister inland columns, upgrade the messaging.
The real action remains inland (Darling Downs / Granite Belt / Moree corridor) — that’s where storms are much easier to trigger.
Why?
Saturday’s setup shows a broad inland trough drawing in deep moisture from the northeast. While instability isn’t as strong as the recent severe days, enough energy and moisture exist for scattered showers and storms across the Darling Downs, Granite Belt, and inland southeast QLD. A few cells could become strong and severe and there is a potential for supercell activity. We could see brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and hail — mainly where local convergence or orographic lift enhances updrafts. Not an outbreak scenario, but still one to keep an eye on through the afternoon.
Models disagree on how widespread and intense today will be (ECMWF harder, GFS more moderate), so the situation is conditional: if boundaries and moisture line up inland this arvo, we could see a few intense storms push east. Stay weather-aware and watch BOM/radar for the next few hours.
Brisbane has a strong inversion (cap) that should limit coastal initiation, so the metro area is likelier to see showers and embedded cells unless an inland storm or a strong boundary breaks the cap.
— the overall setup supports storms, but how many and how strong depends on small-scale timing (boundary collisions, cap erosion).
The sounding for Brisbane , enormous cap.
Please note that these are my thoughts for today. please stay tuned for any warnings if storm develop including outside of these parameters. Keep an eye to the sky and radar. Have a great day and stay safe and hopefully these storms are not in the range we saw last week and prior to today.
Sunday appears to be a more showery day which could see some embedded cells that mat cause a few rumbles.
Edited by user Saturday, 8 November 2025 8:53:23 AM(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
