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Offline Pabloako  
#681 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 5:40:10 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Tsunami Go to Quoted Post
Well from what im reading. Forcast of storms likely sunday is now unlikely
Had a gut full of this weather pattern


Yep. It looks to be slowly fizzling away before it even started. Perhaps we are destined to be breath in smoke and dust for the foreseeable future.

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retired weather man on 16/11/2019(UTC), Falling_Droplet on 16/11/2019(UTC)
Offline DelBoy  
#682 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 5:45:50 AM(UTC)
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Waves of ash wash up on NSW beaches, Port Macquarie records world's dirtiest air as bushfires burn

https://mobile.abc.net.a...-polluted-place/11708612
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retired weather man on 16/11/2019(UTC), Falling_Droplet on 16/11/2019(UTC)
Offline Pharbelle  
#683 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 7:29:19 AM(UTC)
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It's been a pretty stressful few days here. Woodgate fire is still burning and I believe crews have done some fire break clearing on this side of the Burrum River in case it jumps. It looked like it was snowing here with all the ash falling at one stage. Just a lot of State Forest and uncleared bush between me and the river. I've moved the cows, cleared the gutters and tidied up all the fallen branches in the paddocks from the strong winds. Northerlys today so not good. I wish those predicted showers would stop drifting away out to sea.
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Offline retired weather man  
#684 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 7:44:56 AM(UTC)
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WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...16 NOV 2019 TIME....0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...25.3C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........75%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..NNW 10Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....8000M
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1013.7Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD..........1/8 Ci
CURRENT WEATHER......Smoke haze
RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY...0.0mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP. .......29.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......18.0C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+0.75C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....17.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP........1012.2Hpa
MAX WIND GUST LAST 24 HOURS...E 49Kph at 1557
PAST 24 HR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...Smoke haze, lowest vis 3500 metres.
Wyn Nth 2020-Jan165,
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Offline DelBoy  
#685 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 7:49:14 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Pharbelle Go to Quoted Post
It's been a pretty stressful few days here. Woodgate fire is still burning and I believe crews have done some fire break clearing on this side of the Burrum River in case it jumps. It looked like it was snowing here with all the ash falling at one stage. Just a lot of State Forest and uncleared bush between me and the river. I've moved the cows, cleared the gutters and tidied up all the fallen branches in the paddocks from the strong winds. Northerlys today so not good. I wish those predicted showers would stop drifting away out to sea.


Fingers crossed for you Pharbelle. I hope we manage to get some rain today or tomorrow to at least dampen things down a bit.

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Pharbelle on 16/11/2019(UTC), Falling_Droplet on 16/11/2019(UTC), Pabloako on 16/11/2019(UTC), retired weather man on 17/11/2019(UTC)
Offline Pharbelle  
#686 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 8:02:27 AM(UTC)
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Thank you DelBoy. Just been out cleaning the pool. The ash is giving the cartridge filter a hard time...lol.
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Pabloako on 16/11/2019(UTC), retired weather man on 17/11/2019(UTC)
Offline Falling_Droplet  
#687 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 8:59:31 AM(UTC)
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Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 16 Nov 2019
Time: 8:35 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 17.1 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 34.4 C
Min Ground Temp: 15.9 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 30.3 C
Relative Humidity: 41 %
Dew Point: 15.6 C
MSL Pressure: 1013.4 hPa
Wind Speed: 3 kph - light air
Wind Direction: ENE

Present Weather: Smoke haze
Visibility: 10km to 19km - Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 15/11/19: Fine and sunny with some cu clouds in the morning. Smoke haze and increasing during the afternoon. A warm day with variable temperature during the morning and afternoon. The dew point was near average over the day falling during the morning, briefly rising sharply in the late morning before rising slowly in the afternoon and falling slowly from the late afternoon. Relative humidity was moderately low which briefly rose in the late morning and then rose slower for the rest of the day close to average. Calm winds early in the day with light WSW to SSW winds in the early morning, becoming N to NE after briefly S to SE. From the late morning was NNE to ESE winds, ESE to NE in the afternoon, ENE to NE from mid afternoon, N to NE in the evening and became calm later in the evening.

Today: Dew point have been near average day which fell overnight, rose early this morning and is now stable. Relative humidity have been near average overnight and been falling quite quickly this morning. Light and variable winds at times today with NE to SE winds presently.
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retired weather man on 17/11/2019(UTC)
Offline Greg  
#688 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 3:14:32 PM(UTC)
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Few showers and storms starting to develop to the north west of Brisbane and in the Sunshine Coast hinterland. I notice Caboolture has just picked up 6 mm of rain. Further showers and storms seem to be starting up further west of Brisbane, hopefully we can pick a few mm this afternoon. I think the radar returns near the border is smoke from fires.

Greg
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DelBoy on 16/11/2019(UTC), CantSpellNarangba on 16/11/2019(UTC), Pabloako on 16/11/2019(UTC), Falling_Droplet on 16/11/2019(UTC), retired weather man on 17/11/2019(UTC)
Offline DelBoy  
#689 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 3:44:44 PM(UTC)
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My goodness..it chucked it down here in Caboolture. Only 11.7mm but that came in less than 10 minutes.
It smells wonderful outside now.
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Falling_Droplet on 16/11/2019(UTC), retired weather man on 17/11/2019(UTC)
Offline CantSpellNarangba  
#690 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 3:46:06 PM(UTC)
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It totally missed me. 16 drops of rain and then what did land on the path turned to steam and is now gone.
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Falling_Droplet on 16/11/2019(UTC), retired weather man on 17/11/2019(UTC)
Offline Pabloako  
#691 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 6:05:51 PM(UTC)
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I sadly just missed our up here and receive 0.2mm, which has just evaporated now. Hopefully tomorrow will be a bit further south.

A few new fires have popped up on the RFS map, which probably started by dry lightning, which is a great shame.

Glad you got some rain Delboy.

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Falling_Droplet on 16/11/2019(UTC), retired weather man on 18/11/2019(UTC)
Offline Ken  
#692 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 6:48:17 PM(UTC)
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Considering this would be tedious to rewrite, I'll just copy and paste my own thoughts I posted elsewhere about Sunday's potential in the SE Coast district here instead of reinventing the wheel:

" Although shower/thunderstorm activity (some possibly severe) looks highly likely in the region, there’s still the chance some sections may not get much due to capping (a layer of stable air near the surface) & borderline moisture in some areas.

For those who do manage to get something, it’ll probably be in the form of a brief shower or storm moving eastwards at a fast pace during the middle of the day or early-mid afternoon.... with big fat raindrops to start off with and perhaps a short but sharp downpour or two.
A small portion of locations near the coastline could also get an additional but brief shower or storm on Sunday night near the SSE wind change pushing up the coast.

Some locations may also get a severe storm with brief damaging winds or hail..... however the shortage of abundant deep moisture and quick moving nature of the activity means that while any rainfall may look & sound heavy, any flash flooding potential is likely to be localised at worst.
In fact, some of the activity may do more harm than good with lightning and gusty winds posing a fire risk for areas which don’t get much rainfall, given the Extreme fire danger in some areas.

Showers/storms are also possible near the southern half of the QLD coast/northern half of the NSW coast in general as well as the adjacent inland…. but for the Downs, the majority of the low-rainfall activity is likely to be restricted to northern parts (with the slight chance in eastern parts)…. with no rainfall elsewhere in the region.

Chance of a storm at least somewhere in SEQ on Sun:
Slight.
Medium.
High. ✅ (but not the whole region)

Chance of a severe storm at least somewhere in SEQ on Sun:
Slight.
Medium. ✅
High.

Rainfall amounts for any affected locations on Sun:
Low ✅ (but locally better amounts under strong storms).
Medium.
High.

An unstable atmosphere to the east of a surface trough of low pressure just inland of the coast is the main cause of this, and may be aided in SE QLD by a gusty SSE wind change surging up the coast on Sunday evening.
Strong shear could also cause a portion of the storms to become severe for some locations with brief damaging winds or large hail but it’s more speed shear (where wind speeds become a lot stronger with height) as opposed to directional shear (where wind directions change a lot with height).
The shortage of abundant moisture also means any flash flooding potential is likely to be localised… and the severe storm potential will be reduced until/unless storms can ingest moister air near the coast and develop lower bases.
The strong westerly steering winds aloft should drag any activity quickly towards parts of the coast.
The majority of any early morning patchy low cloud near the coast is also likely to decrease later in the morning. "
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Offline Falling_Droplet  
#693 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 7:25:34 PM(UTC)
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A hot day today with a maximum temperature of 36 C before falling from the middle of the day. Cloud increased in the afternoon with a nearby thunderstorm but with only a few drops of rain. Smoke haze persisted today easing in the afternoon. The dew point rose and fell a few times while remain close to average. The relative humidity fell during the day to a low of 25% before generally rising from the late morning. Currently the relative humidity is 48%. Light SE to NE winds in the morning, ESE to NE from the late morning, becoming E to ENE since the afternoon, and was N to NE in the mid afternoon and tonight.
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retired weather man on 17/11/2019(UTC), Mama Tus on 17/11/2019(UTC)
Offline SatMan  
#694 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 8:52:19 PM(UTC)
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Wow..stunning analysis Ken. Thank you.
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Offline Falling_Droplet  
#695 Posted : Saturday, 16 November 2019 11:35:10 PM(UTC)
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Offline retired weather man  
#696 Posted : Sunday, 17 November 2019 7:47:34 AM(UTC)
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WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...17 NOV 2019 TIME....0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...24.3C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........73%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..ESE 5Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....8000M
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1014.8pa
CURRENT CLOUD..........5/8 CuSc
CURRENT WEATHER......Smoke haze
RAIN SINCE 0900 SATURDAY...0.0mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP. .......31.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......19.5C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+2.50C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....18.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP........1012.1Hpa
MAX WIND GUST LAST 24 HOURS...NE 43Kph at 1512
PAST 24 HR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...Smoke haze. Storms to NW - moving to the NE Saturday afternoon.
Wyn Nth 2020-Jan165,
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Offline Falling_Droplet  
#697 Posted : Sunday, 17 November 2019 9:24:29 AM(UTC)
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Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 17 Nov 2019
Time: 8:40 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 19.8 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 36 C
Min Ground Temp: 17 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 28.2 C
Relative Humidity: 49 %
Dew Point: 16.4 C
MSL Pressure: 1013.7 hPa
Wind Speed: 5 kph - light air
Wind Direction: NE

Present Weather: Visibility reduced by smoke
Visibility: 10km to 19km - Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 1/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 16/11/19: Nearby thunderstorm with a light few drops in the mid afternoon. Fine otherwise. Decreasing smoke haze during the day. A mostly sunny morning with some cu clouds. Clouds increased in the afternoon with cu, cb, ci and ac clouds. A hot day with the maximum temperature reached in the late morning. Near average and variable dew point. Relative humidity was moderately during the morning and afternoon and was a little variable in the afternoon. Light and variable winds early, before SE to NE light winds developing in the morning and ESE to NE from the late morning. Winds became E to ENE during the afternoon, and was N to NE in the mid afternoon and in the evening. Winds shifted SSE to ESE from 8pm.

Today: Mostly stable and near dew point today. Relative humidity has been moderately low so far today. Light winds so far today varying between S and NE through E.
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retired weather man on 18/11/2019(UTC)
Offline CantSpellNarangba  
#698 Posted : Sunday, 17 November 2019 12:12:10 PM(UTC)
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Wow. That pooped up out of nowhere. Hearing rumbles to the west and the radar has two cells powering along.

IDR663 (2).gif
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Falling_Droplet on 17/11/2019(UTC), retired weather man on 18/11/2019(UTC)
Offline Falling_Droplet  
#699 Posted : Sunday, 17 November 2019 12:32:45 PM(UTC)
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Thunder being heard in the last 15 minutes and increasing clouds from a cell to my west. The temperature reached a maximum of 32.7 C at midday and have now fallen to 29 C. Dew point have been near average and slowly rising and is currently 18 C. Relative humidity fell to 41% and is now starting to rise and is now 50%. In the last 2 hours winds have been light E to NE.
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Pabloako on 17/11/2019(UTC), retired weather man on 18/11/2019(UTC)
Offline CantSpellNarangba  
#700 Posted : Sunday, 17 November 2019 1:13:12 PM(UTC)
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Light rain and that was it here and the sun is out now. Hold on Bribie, this one has turned into a beast!

IDR663 (3).gif

Edited by user Sunday, 17 November 2019 1:21:07 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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