Welcome Delboy!

It's a lovely start to the day up here. I originally thought smoke had returned, however it was a lovely mist with a heavy dew on the ground. It is starting to lift now and a warm sunny day ahead.

Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 14 Sep 2019
Time: 8:10 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 10.9 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 30.7 C
Min Ground Temp: 8.9 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 19.9 C
Relative Humidity: 73 %
Dew Point: 15 C
MSL Pressure: 1022.5 hPa
Wind Speed: Calm
Wind Direction: Calm

Present Weather: Haze
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 13/9/19: Fine and sunny. Smoke haze. Some limited cu clouds later in the morning and clearing in afternoon. A cool morning and a hot day. Moderately low and stable dew point early then rose to near average in the early morning before starting to fall. The dew point fell faster from 9am and fell through to the afternoon and became very low to a minimum of -24 C for a brief period. From mid afternoon the dew point rose becoming stable and moderately low later in the evening. Relative humidity fell quickly from 8am and became low in the afternoon and was around 5% between 12pm and 3 pm and briefly between 2 and 5%. In the evening the relative humidity recovered to moderately low. Light and variable winds at times early before light SE to NE winds in the early morning before a dry W to SW change at 9am. SSW to W winds in the afternoon, SSE to ESE from mid afternoon becoming calm in the evening.

Today: Light NNE to NW winds have started in the last hour hour after mostly calm winds overnight. The temperature fell only slowly early and the dew point have been rising and now near average and is much higher than it has been. Relative humidity have returned to near average.

For some days now, various models have been hinting at a period of increased moisture from about mid next week as a more N to NE onshore flow becomes established.

There's nothing yet that currently indicates any good confidence of big rain events within the next few weeks but even just a little bit of rainfall from some shower or thunderstorm activity would be nice... even if it means only some locations get wet while others don't.

Above is a 2-week graph showing the percentage of the past two runs of the GFS ensemble going for at least some measurable rainfall for Brisbane. Each tick mark/date label on the bottom axis represents 10am on that date.

Tuesday does have a few aspects supportive of severe thunderstorm/supercell potential for southern parts of SE QLD/NE NSW - strong shear and nice wind profile, not much cloud cover, and a coastal change.
But moisture is somewhat marginal in places (especially in the north) and there's varying amounts of capping near the coast depending on which model you look at e.g. ACCESS-G currently has virtually no capping over inland parts which is pretty typical but moderate capping near the coast (and even stronger further north)... and the reasonably modest level of instability.
Despite coastal capping, any inland activity has the distinct possibility of being advected closer to the coast in southern parts on the strong ~35kt westerly steering winds.
So not the ideal setup but some southern locations in our region could see a bit of action provided moisture and capping don't get any worse (if it does, storm chances will become pretty slim).

Here are a couple of charts from the 00z GFS for Tuesday CAPE and Lift Index and 500hpa winds
This is just a point in time of 2pm to Tuesday, so not as clever as Ken's Ensemble graph for multiple dates..

Lift Index


CAPE


500hpa Winds

Edited by user Saturday, 14 September 2019 4:16:29 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Added 500hpa wind, because the colours look pretty!

Today saw similarly low relative humidity and dew point compared to yesterday falling very low during the day but have since returned not far from average. Relative humidity was between 5 and 10% for much of the afternoon and briefly between 3 and 5 %. Less wind today but the wind direction varied a bit. S to SE winds since the late afternoon brought the humidity back up.

Last 24 hours:

A smokey start to the day down here, but it just looks to be smoke from the NSW fires has drifted up and nothing local. Does it still look like we have a chance of a drop of rain on Tuesday?

Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 15 Sep 2019
Time: 8:25 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 12.2 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 31.5 C
Min Ground Temp: 9.4 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 20.6 C
Relative Humidity: 56 %
Dew Point: 11.5 C
MSL Pressure: 1025.3 hPa
Wind Speed: light air
Wind Direction: NE

Present Weather: Haze
Visibility: 10km to 19km - Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 1/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 14/9/19: Fine. Smoke haze. A hot day. Moderately low dew point rising from early, rising quicker in the early morning to near average before falling from the mid morning and for a brief period in the late morning very quickly. The dew point became very low from the late morning and variable into the afternoon before sharply rising at 4pm to moderately low. In the late afternoon the dew point rose to near average and fell slightly in the early evening and slowly rose for the rest of the evening. Relative humidity fell very quickly from the early morning becoming very low later in the morning. The relative humidity was stabilised at 5 to 10 % and briefly 3 to 5 % in the afternoon before sharply rising from 4 pm close to average. At around 8pm there was brief fall in the relative humidity before resuming the normal rising of relative humidity. Light and variable winds at times early before winds varying between N to SSW (through W) from early morning with some ESE to NNE winds in the early morning. SSE to ENE winds wind change from 4 pm and light SSE to ESE winds in the evening.

Today: Smoke Haze. Dew point have been stable and near average. Temperature fell slowly overnight and was stable at times. Relative humidity have been near average and fall started to fall to moderately low. Light SE to ENE winds have developed in the last hour after some light and variable winds overnight.