Another warm and humid night. Unfortunately today brings the possibility of more isolated storms with some possibly being severe. The main areas at this early stage is the south east and border ranges of NE NSW and SEQ and the southern interior.



As the forecast sounding indicates at this point, there steering winds are quite weak and so the main threat will be slow moving storms and heavy rain.



Please stay safe and listen or watch for any warnings throughout the day. We could expect to see heavy showers/storms from late morning onwards.

Edited by user Wednesday, 10 January 2024 8:17:50 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Added info.

A beautiful tower ( Cumulonimbus ) towards the South at Carseldine about 30 minutes ago (13:20)

Edited by user Wednesday, 10 January 2024 2:15:46 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Picture was inserted wrong way

Latest STW for heavy rain this afternoon and the 512K Stapy radar. Very hot and
humid here and 17:09

The weather for Friday for the area within this thread is for showers and average temperatures. On Saturday we may see Storms once again, but at this stage it is forecasting for Coastal activity rather than a larger broad area. But it is something to check with the next runs.

Most of the action today will be North from Mackay to the Cape. The members in the Far North Queensland thread will probably no doubt be following closely the monsoonal activity that is starting to form up through that area.

Below is the satellite imagery for the North .



And the 4 day outlook.

Just showers, hot and windy at times for much of the Coastal areas East of the Range.
Below is the probability of showers .



And below you can see the lack of storm potential, not to say it is 100% definite as we could get a thundery shower in he mix. The models have not been right on the money lately to be honest.

Some very deep rumbles of thunder here on the Northside of Brisbane at 11:18

Edited by user Monday, 15 January 2024 11:31:02 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Auto spell

Some interesting long range forecast being thrown around by the different modelling systems for SEQLD. It is still a long way out so things can change but worth keeping an eye on the models and see how they fair.
These are all for the same timeframe of January 24, except for the ECMWF which only has run till the 20 January.

GFS Model is the most aggressive



CMC has the same low but further to the East.



NAVGEM



ECMFW, run stops at January 20.



As I said before, it is still a long way out and things can change with each run of the models. But worth keeping an eye on them just in case.

Edited by user Monday, 15 January 2024 4:37:30 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Wednesday is a bit of a pause rewind and repeat of the same weather, showers, hopefully not as heavy as it was down the Gold Coast yesterday. Thundery showers/ possible storm Forecast have been a bit off to be honest. Some of the forecast shower/ rain totals have been way above those predicted. But to be honest and fair on BoM, the atmosphere is so saturated that it is hard to know with certainty how much will fall and where. Most times it may only be an hour or 2 before the event or in real time.

As for O5U, the Coral Sea Low, it is worth keeping an eye on the BoM’s cyclone update.
Some of the models are still finishing their runs so are not ready for posting. But ECMFW has now thrown this into the framework. Not saying this is what will happen because Cyclones and Severe weather events can change so rapidly. So do not panic. We are still a long way off in terms of Cyclone forecasting. When you stop and think of all the cyclones, how many have been forecast to cross the coast only for them to suddenly loose strength and steer to the East away from the coast.

This is ECMWF ensemble for a possible forecast.



As I said do not panic because this may chop and change so many times.

Edited by user Wednesday, 17 January 2024 8:22:06 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

A pretty nasty signature on the doppler radar near Darlington. A very dark ( high winds) V notch.
BoM seem to be dropping the ball. Storms are over us and heading out to the Bay.
Below the V notch on doppler, radar and lightning tracker.









Latest storm warning which should be extended to the Metropolitan areas as the storms move out to sea.

BoM have finally looked at the radar,sorry for sounding negative but I just don’t know what is happening internally. No regional manned stations anymore.

Latest STW