Weather Forum

Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login or Register.

Notification

Icon
Error
41 Pages«<1415161718>»
FNQ Nov-Apr 23-24 Wet Season
Share
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Previous Topic Next Topic
Offline ronfishes  
#301 Posted : Saturday, 20 January 2024 3:13:47 PM(UTC)
Retweet
ronfishes

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 292
Australia
Location: Cairns

Thanks: 176 times
Was thanked: 339 time(s) in 209 post(s)
JWTC:

WTPS21 PGTW 192030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 155.9E TO 15.8S 152.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 155.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
157.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 155.5E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND A 191731Z SSMIS
91GHZ DEPICT A FORMATIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMET,
WITH WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM SSTS (30 C), OFFSET BY HIGH
VWS (20-30 KT). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202030Z.
//
NNNN
JWTC 2024-01-20 151022.png
Records for
2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm
2024: 1884mm (no records April-Sept)
Back to top
Report
thanks 1 user thanked ronfishes for this useful post.
28degrees on 20/01/2024(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#302 Posted : Saturday, 20 January 2024 3:21:30 PM(UTC)
Retweet
ronfishes

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 292
Australia
Location: Cairns

Thanks: 176 times
Was thanked: 339 time(s) in 209 post(s)
Few more to look at, EC hasn't run out to that time just yet.
GEFS 2024-01-20 151428.pngGEPS 2024-01-20 151533.pngGFS 2024-01-20 151658.pngICON 2024-01-20 151946.pngNAVGEM 2024-01-20 151854.png
Records for
2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm
2024: 1884mm (no records April-Sept)
Back to top
Report
thanks 3 users thanked ronfishes for this useful post.
monkeybusiness on 20/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 20/01/2024(UTC), scott123 on 20/01/2024(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#303 Posted : Saturday, 20 January 2024 3:27:30 PM(UTC)
Retweet
ronfishes

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 292
Australia
Location: Cairns

Thanks: 176 times
Was thanked: 339 time(s) in 209 post(s)
The BoM's morning forecast also has it moving east in the short term, however JWTC already has it with westward movement (3Kts), which , in my understanding is, the earlier the westward movement, the higher latitude it could possibly make landfall along the coast.
Records for
2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm
2024: 1884mm (no records April-Sept)
Back to top
Report
thanks 2 users thanked ronfishes for this useful post.
monkeybusiness on 20/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 20/01/2024(UTC)
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#304 Posted : Saturday, 20 January 2024 3:28:22 PM(UTC)
Retweet
FNQ Bunyip

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 552
Australia
Location: Daintree

Thanks: 427 times
Was thanked: 564 time(s) in 376 post(s)

Yeah lots to watch over he next few days.
Daintree drizzle has returned this arvo, this will slow the drying of the spare room floor I just painted
but Its warm enough that it will dry with the fan up high.


Cheers
2024 Rainfall
Back to top
Report
thanks 1 user thanked FNQ Bunyip for this useful post.
28degrees on 20/01/2024(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#305 Posted : Saturday, 20 January 2024 3:43:48 PM(UTC)
Retweet
ronfishes

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 292
Australia
Location: Cairns

Thanks: 176 times
Was thanked: 339 time(s) in 209 post(s)
Yeah, I was supposed to put the final coats of clear on my new bar top today, but too risky with this drishizzle and humidity.
Records for
2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm
2024: 1884mm (no records April-Sept)
Back to top
Report
thanks 1 user thanked ronfishes for this useful post.
28degrees on 20/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#306 Posted : Saturday, 20 January 2024 5:12:44 PM(UTC)
Retweet
Sheridan Mist

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 30/12/2022(UTC)
Posts: 419
Australia
Location: White Rock

Thanks: 500 times
Was thanked: 665 time(s) in 399 post(s)
Thanks for that info Ron, much appreciated. Looking at those spaghetti maps it is easy to see how they get themselves confused.

The weather has lifted here a bit this afternoon. 11mm so far today.
Back to top
Report
thanks 3 users thanked Sheridan Mist for this useful post.
monkeybusiness on 20/01/2024(UTC), ronfishes on 20/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 20/01/2024(UTC)
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#307 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 7:56:10 AM(UTC)
Retweet
FNQ Bunyip

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 552
Australia
Location: Daintree

Thanks: 427 times
Was thanked: 564 time(s) in 376 post(s)

Managed to end up with 62mm in the gauge this morning.
Floor feels dry so will whack a second coat on it soon. Yeah don't think I'd be putting clear on any timber in this weather.

Another day or so of waiting by the looks of things. I need to go to mareeba & Cairns this week but am not sure what day I should tackle it all.


Cheers
2024 Rainfall
Back to top
Report
thanks 1 user thanked FNQ Bunyip for this useful post.
28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#308 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 8:03:56 AM(UTC)
Retweet
28degrees

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 957
Australia
Location: On the road (ex Chillagoe)

Thanks: 1632 times
Was thanked: 559 time(s) in 368 post(s)
Good morning everyone.

A monstrous 2mm.....

Invest 90P looks big on the water vapour map
https://tropic.ssec.wisc...p;prod=wvbbm&sat=gms

Windy has it crossing now at Bowen on Thursday evening.

Ventusky has it crossing just south of Ayr on Thursday morning.

Isn't modelling fun...😁

Edit: A 6.1 magnitude quake in the Northern Marianas has prompted a marine warning for Australia, even with a depth of 197km.
https://earthquake.usgs....eventpage/us6000m50e/map
And at 8am
http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/?ref=ftr

Edited by user Sunday, 21 January 2024 8:09:57 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
Back to top
Report
thanks 2 users thanked 28degrees for this useful post.
monkeybusiness on 21/01/2024(UTC), scott123 on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#309 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 8:27:55 AM(UTC)
Retweet
28degrees

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 957
Australia
Location: On the road (ex Chillagoe)

Thanks: 1632 times
Was thanked: 559 time(s) in 368 post(s)
Originally Posted by: FNQ Bunyip Go to Quoted Post
I need to go to mareeba & Cairns this week but am not sure what day I should tackle it all.
Cheers

Tuesday's looking good so far.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Back to top
Report
Offline Weary  
#310 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 9:50:36 AM(UTC)
Retweet
Weary

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 272
Australia
Location: Cairns

Was thanked: 326 time(s) in 195 post(s)
@28
Ventusky has it crossing just south of Ayr on Thursday morning.

Not at all familiar with Ventusky?
Back to top
Report
thanks 1 user thanked Weary for this useful post.
28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#311 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 10:17:12 AM(UTC)
Retweet
Sheridan Mist

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 30/12/2022(UTC)
Posts: 419
Australia
Location: White Rock

Thanks: 500 times
Was thanked: 665 time(s) in 399 post(s)
Things much the same here this morning. No rain overnight so still 11mm from yesterday in the gauge and GFS is still sticking to a Townsville crossing. Might get the yard mowed if this keeps up.

YTD: 600.5mm

Edited by user Sunday, 21 January 2024 10:18:42 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
Back to top
Report
thanks 1 user thanked Sheridan Mist for this useful post.
28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline scott123  
#312 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 10:39:16 AM(UTC)
Retweet
scott123

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 6/03/2020(UTC)
Posts: 343
Australia

Thanks: 105 times
Was thanked: 514 time(s) in 260 post(s)
This is the first dry morning we have had in a while..very hot and humid though.

Looking at all the models there already seems to be a concensus of a severe Cyclone crossing thursday/friday between Townsville and Airlie beach...

It will be interesting to see if BOM falls in line with that tomorrow as it actually is named...

Do you guys reckon its too early to call a crossing like that with such a degree of accuracy..?..If so I'm feeling a bit better then I did yesterday...

I see some forecasts for 38c by the weekend which i guess is expected if we are on the north side of the spinner..

Edited by user Sunday, 21 January 2024 10:42:24 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
Back to top
Report
Offline scott123  
#313 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 11:37:50 AM(UTC)
Retweet
scott123

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 6/03/2020(UTC)
Posts: 343
Australia

Thanks: 105 times
Was thanked: 514 time(s) in 260 post(s)
Ok so it looks like someone is pulling some overtime at the BOM...



cyclone 2023.png
Back to top
Report
thanks 2 users thanked scott123 for this useful post.
28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC), monkeybusiness on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#314 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 12:00:00 PM(UTC)
Retweet
Sheridan Mist

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 30/12/2022(UTC)
Posts: 419
Australia
Location: White Rock

Thanks: 500 times
Was thanked: 665 time(s) in 399 post(s)
Thanks Scott, looks like it could be a bit more severe this one. I hope the track doesn't follow Jasper and do a northward match.
Back to top
Report
thanks 2 users thanked Sheridan Mist for this useful post.
28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC), monkeybusiness on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#315 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 12:28:36 PM(UTC)
Retweet
28degrees

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 957
Australia
Location: On the road (ex Chillagoe)

Thanks: 1632 times
Was thanked: 559 time(s) in 368 post(s)
Originally Posted by: Weary Go to Quoted Post
Not at all familiar with Ventusky


Downloaded it a while back, but sort of forgot about it til yesterday. Not sure which modelling they use.
https://play.google.com/...ils?id=cz.ackee.ventusky

I think I started looking around when Windy starting using the watermark.

Edited by user Sunday, 21 January 2024 12:30:55 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
Back to top
Report
Offline scott123  
#316 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 12:31:56 PM(UTC)
Retweet
scott123

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 6/03/2020(UTC)
Posts: 343
Australia

Thanks: 105 times
Was thanked: 514 time(s) in 260 post(s)
Yes SM, Lets hope it stays south of Townsville....imagine just the environmental damage on top of Jasper and the saturated soil as well if it comes ashore near Cairns..and i think after the last event it would be pretty devestating for a lot of people, farmers and businesses..

I'm still a bit anxious though as its early days and wont take much of a turn to send it straight into Tully/innisfail area and its been 12 years since the last big one here ..
Back to top
Report
thanks 2 users thanked scott123 for this useful post.
monkeybusiness on 21/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#317 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 12:53:26 PM(UTC)
Retweet
Weary

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 272
Australia
Location: Cairns

Was thanked: 326 time(s) in 195 post(s)
Originally Posted by: 28degrees Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Weary Go to Quoted Post
Not at all familiar with Ventusky


Downloaded it a while back, but sort of forgot about it til yesterday. Not sure which modelling they use.
https://play.google.com/...ils?id=cz.ackee.ventusky

I think I started looking around when Windy starting using the watermark.


I found it and it’s quite good, you can choose which model you want if you go into settings and turn “model switcher” on
Back to top
Report
thanks 2 users thanked Weary for this useful post.
28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC), monkeybusiness on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#318 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 1:34:58 PM(UTC)
Retweet
Colmait

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 21/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 639
Australia
Location: Brisbane Northside

Thanks: 1090 times
Was thanked: 834 time(s) in 389 post(s)
A bit boring down in the SEQ and NE NSW by myself. BigGrin . From what I am reading I hope you don’t get too much more rain.

However this is the latest offering by BoM on Meteye regarding Tropical Low 05U. BoM are now going for a possible Townsville or thereabouts crossing and by the looks, as some models have suggested, a southerly track path. Unfortunately you can’t go forward to see the possible/predicted path or strength. It is only available for the time presented.

IMG_3549.jpeg

Edited by user Sunday, 21 January 2024 1:46:45 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Colin Maitland.
Back to top
Report
thanks 2 users thanked Colmait for this useful post.
28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC), monkeybusiness on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#319 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 3:17:51 PM(UTC)
Retweet
Weary

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 272
Australia
Location: Cairns

Was thanked: 326 time(s) in 195 post(s)
Thanks Colmait, I never knew MetEye showed cyclone tracks further out than the official BOM one.
Back to top
Report
thanks 2 users thanked Weary for this useful post.
Colmait on 21/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#320 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 3:47:18 PM(UTC)
Retweet
28degrees

Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 27/08/2019(UTC)
Posts: 957
Australia
Location: On the road (ex Chillagoe)

Thanks: 1632 times
Was thanked: 559 time(s) in 368 post(s)
I didn't know that either Weary.
Thanks Colmait.
Back to top
Report
thanks 1 user thanked 28degrees for this useful post.
Colmait on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Users browsing this topic
Guest
41 Pages«<1415161718>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Privacy Policy | Powered by YAF.NET | YAF.NET © 2003-2024, Yet Another Forum.NET
This page was generated in 0.735 seconds.

Weather Forum

Weatherzone Forum Alternative

The Weather Forum for Australia

Australian Weather Forum

Weather Forum for Australia, climate change, storm chasing, cyclones, weather photography