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FNQ Nov-Apr 23-24 Wet Season
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Offline ronfishes  
#301 Posted : Saturday, 20 January 2024 3:13:47 PM(UTC)
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JWTC:

WTPS21 PGTW 192030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 155.9E TO 15.8S 152.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 155.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
157.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 155.5E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND A 191731Z SSMIS
91GHZ DEPICT A FORMATIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMET,
WITH WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM SSTS (30 C), OFFSET BY HIGH
VWS (20-30 KT). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202030Z.
//
NNNN
JWTC 2024-01-20 151022.png
Dodgy records for 2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm 2024: 951.6mm
Jan 24: 449.6mm
Feb 24: 350mm
Mar 24: 152mm
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28degrees on 20/01/2024(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#302 Posted : Saturday, 20 January 2024 3:21:30 PM(UTC)
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Few more to look at, EC hasn't run out to that time just yet.
GEFS 2024-01-20 151428.pngGEPS 2024-01-20 151533.pngGFS 2024-01-20 151658.pngICON 2024-01-20 151946.pngNAVGEM 2024-01-20 151854.png
Dodgy records for 2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm 2024: 951.6mm
Jan 24: 449.6mm
Feb 24: 350mm
Mar 24: 152mm
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monkeybusiness on 20/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 20/01/2024(UTC), scott123 on 20/01/2024(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#303 Posted : Saturday, 20 January 2024 3:27:30 PM(UTC)
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The BoM's morning forecast also has it moving east in the short term, however JWTC already has it with westward movement (3Kts), which , in my understanding is, the earlier the westward movement, the higher latitude it could possibly make landfall along the coast.
Dodgy records for 2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm 2024: 951.6mm
Jan 24: 449.6mm
Feb 24: 350mm
Mar 24: 152mm
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monkeybusiness on 20/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 20/01/2024(UTC)
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#304 Posted : Saturday, 20 January 2024 3:28:22 PM(UTC)
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Yeah lots to watch over he next few days.
Daintree drizzle has returned this arvo, this will slow the drying of the spare room floor I just painted
but Its warm enough that it will dry with the fan up high.


Cheers
2024 Rainfall
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28degrees on 20/01/2024(UTC)
Offline ronfishes  
#305 Posted : Saturday, 20 January 2024 3:43:48 PM(UTC)
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Yeah, I was supposed to put the final coats of clear on my new bar top today, but too risky with this drishizzle and humidity.
Dodgy records for 2022: 1520mm
2023: 2710mm 2024: 951.6mm
Jan 24: 449.6mm
Feb 24: 350mm
Mar 24: 152mm
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28degrees on 20/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#306 Posted : Saturday, 20 January 2024 5:12:44 PM(UTC)
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Thanks for that info Ron, much appreciated. Looking at those spaghetti maps it is easy to see how they get themselves confused.

The weather has lifted here a bit this afternoon. 11mm so far today.
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monkeybusiness on 20/01/2024(UTC), ronfishes on 20/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 20/01/2024(UTC)
Offline FNQ Bunyip  
#307 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 7:56:10 AM(UTC)
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Managed to end up with 62mm in the gauge this morning.
Floor feels dry so will whack a second coat on it soon. Yeah don't think I'd be putting clear on any timber in this weather.

Another day or so of waiting by the looks of things. I need to go to mareeba & Cairns this week but am not sure what day I should tackle it all.


Cheers
2024 Rainfall
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28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#308 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 8:03:56 AM(UTC)
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Good morning everyone.

A monstrous 2mm.....

Invest 90P looks big on the water vapour map
https://tropic.ssec.wisc...p;prod=wvbbm&sat=gms

Windy has it crossing now at Bowen on Thursday evening.

Ventusky has it crossing just south of Ayr on Thursday morning.

Isn't modelling fun...😁

Edit: A 6.1 magnitude quake in the Northern Marianas has prompted a marine warning for Australia, even with a depth of 197km.
https://earthquake.usgs....eventpage/us6000m50e/map
And at 8am
http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/?ref=ftr

Edited by user Sunday, 21 January 2024 8:09:57 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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monkeybusiness on 21/01/2024(UTC), scott123 on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#309 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 8:27:55 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: FNQ Bunyip Go to Quoted Post
I need to go to mareeba & Cairns this week but am not sure what day I should tackle it all.
Cheers

Tuesday's looking good so far.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
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Offline Weary  
#310 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 9:50:36 AM(UTC)
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@28
Ventusky has it crossing just south of Ayr on Thursday morning.

Not at all familiar with Ventusky?
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28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#311 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 10:17:12 AM(UTC)
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Things much the same here this morning. No rain overnight so still 11mm from yesterday in the gauge and GFS is still sticking to a Townsville crossing. Might get the yard mowed if this keeps up.

YTD: 600.5mm

Edited by user Sunday, 21 January 2024 10:18:42 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline scott123  
#312 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 10:39:16 AM(UTC)
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This is the first dry morning we have had in a while..very hot and humid though.

Looking at all the models there already seems to be a concensus of a severe Cyclone crossing thursday/friday between Townsville and Airlie beach...

It will be interesting to see if BOM falls in line with that tomorrow as it actually is named...

Do you guys reckon its too early to call a crossing like that with such a degree of accuracy..?..If so I'm feeling a bit better then I did yesterday...

I see some forecasts for 38c by the weekend which i guess is expected if we are on the north side of the spinner..

Edited by user Sunday, 21 January 2024 10:42:24 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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Offline scott123  
#313 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 11:37:50 AM(UTC)
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Ok so it looks like someone is pulling some overtime at the BOM...



cyclone 2023.png
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28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC), monkeybusiness on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Sheridan Mist  
#314 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 12:00:00 PM(UTC)
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Thanks Scott, looks like it could be a bit more severe this one. I hope the track doesn't follow Jasper and do a northward match.
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28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC), monkeybusiness on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#315 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 12:28:36 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Weary Go to Quoted Post
Not at all familiar with Ventusky


Downloaded it a while back, but sort of forgot about it til yesterday. Not sure which modelling they use.
https://play.google.com/...ils?id=cz.ackee.ventusky

I think I started looking around when Windy starting using the watermark.

Edited by user Sunday, 21 January 2024 12:30:55 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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Offline scott123  
#316 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 12:31:56 PM(UTC)
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Yes SM, Lets hope it stays south of Townsville....imagine just the environmental damage on top of Jasper and the saturated soil as well if it comes ashore near Cairns..and i think after the last event it would be pretty devestating for a lot of people, farmers and businesses..

I'm still a bit anxious though as its early days and wont take much of a turn to send it straight into Tully/innisfail area and its been 12 years since the last big one here ..
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monkeybusiness on 21/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#317 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 12:53:26 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: 28degrees Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Weary Go to Quoted Post
Not at all familiar with Ventusky


Downloaded it a while back, but sort of forgot about it til yesterday. Not sure which modelling they use.
https://play.google.com/...ils?id=cz.ackee.ventusky

I think I started looking around when Windy starting using the watermark.


I found it and it’s quite good, you can choose which model you want if you go into settings and turn “model switcher” on
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28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC), monkeybusiness on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Colmait  
#318 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 1:34:58 PM(UTC)
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A bit boring down in the SEQ and NE NSW by myself. BigGrin . From what I am reading I hope you don’t get too much more rain.

However this is the latest offering by BoM on Meteye regarding Tropical Low 05U. BoM are now going for a possible Townsville or thereabouts crossing and by the looks, as some models have suggested, a southerly track path. Unfortunately you can’t go forward to see the possible/predicted path or strength. It is only available for the time presented.

IMG_3549.jpeg

Edited by user Sunday, 21 January 2024 1:46:45 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Colin Maitland.
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28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC), monkeybusiness on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline Weary  
#319 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 3:17:51 PM(UTC)
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Thanks Colmait, I never knew MetEye showed cyclone tracks further out than the official BOM one.
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Colmait on 21/01/2024(UTC), 28degrees on 21/01/2024(UTC)
Offline 28degrees  
#320 Posted : Sunday, 21 January 2024 3:47:18 PM(UTC)
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I didn't know that either Weary.
Thanks Colmait.
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Colmait on 21/01/2024(UTC)
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