11 days into March and Autumn and we are still stuck in the same rut of high temperatures and some showers. The same pattern is set to continue this week although the overnights are a little better heat wise. The Coastal areas over the last few days have really coped some very strong winds which as set to prevail over the next few days as they ease.

Australia's most dominant climate driver, La Niña, has a strong chance of reforming sometime in 2024, which once again would favour a wet year.

The prediction of La Niña's possible return comes as global weather models forecast a rapid cooling of sea surface temperatures(SST’s) across the equatorial Pacific during the coming months. NOAA has detected small pockets of cold water in the Coral sea in the last week or so.

It is not a foregone conclusion that it will occur but one that we will have to watch and see what eventuates.

This ongoing cycle seems never ending. We are having showers on and off here nearly every day and the ground is getting saturated. More showers are forecast for every day except tomorrow for the next week.

Edited by user Thursday, 14 March 2024 11:42:26 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Just reading the long range temperature for Min and Max temperatures from April to June. Not happy. If it pans out we are in for more hot weather in most areas of Australia.
Extract from BoM

Warmer April to June days and nights likely for Australia

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For April, maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance)to be above median for western and eastern Australia and likely (60 to 80%) above median for most remaining areas.
For April to June, above median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.
For April, above median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia, except South Australia and surrounding border regions.
For April to June, above median minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia, except for inland parts of the southern mainland where the chance reduces to likely (60 to 80%).
For April to June, Australia has an increased chance of unusually warm maximum temperatures, with the chance being at least 3 times more likely than normal for most of the northern half of Australia, south-west Western Australia, north-east New South Wales and Tasmania. Unusually high maximum temperatures are defined as the warmest 20% of April to June days from 1981 to 2018.
For April to June, Australia has an increased chance of unusually warm minimum temperatures, with the chance being at least 3 times more likely than normal for much of the east coast, and northern and far south-eastern Australia. Unusually high minimum temperatures are defined as the warmest 20% of April to June nights from 1981 to 2018.

That is interesting about the Marburg Radar outperforming Mt Stapylton since the upgrade. Will have to check Marburg more often as there has been a few occasions recently that my husband and I felt the Mt Stapylton wasn't showing what was actually happening.

The weather at the moment is quite pleasant. Even though yesterday was warm there was a nice breeze most of the day. Today is forecast to be cooler and again we have a lovely breeze blowing.

Some good falls overnight through out parts of the South East. 12 mm here just a touch North of Brisbane.
Below is the Marburg radar at 06:15 and Mt Stapylton rain totlas.

Hi Aussie Girl,

That is right if everything goes to plan. Just the “ when will La Niña kick in ?” is the hot dispute at this point. At this stage we should expect the hotter than average temps until June.

With regards to the La Niña, the usual trend is, due to more cloud cover the day times maximums are typically cooler and the flip side is at night the heat is trapped so the minimums are warmer than average. That is the overall trend. You could still see a week of clear skies and night time temperatures dip into the single digits.

The other problem in trying to work out what the weather will bring us due to what is happening with the climate change, weather can become extreme and unpredictable. I have a few mates in the USA and they had a warm winter by their standards but then they did not see the sun for almost 3 weeks due to heavy cloud cover. They also experienced massive snow storms, with some places having up to 20 feet of snow. There was snow in places where it rarely has ever snowed. So it was bitterly cold for a period then it quickly warmed up again.

So it will be interesting to see what is thrown at us. But the usual trend for La Nina is warmer nights and cooler days during winter and the same with summer max. they generally are lower but the humidity will be higher.

Edited by user Tuesday, 19 March 2024 9:15:31 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Just correcting some grammar

Showers again. Still in this Deja Vu cycle of weather. Looking forward to Sunday with a top of 26°C. That is a nice temperature to be honest.

It is also official that 2023 was the hottest year on record with temperatures sitting approximately 1.45°C above the baseline since the preindustrial era.

Once again, Mt Stapylton radar is down. The money pit back in action.



But fortunately Marburg has picked up the nice chunky showers crossing the coast over the Southeast.

It is a pain with that part of the radar. The other back is the Brisbane Airport but doesn’t have the rainfall totals either unfortunately.

This is the 512K Airport followed by the Mt Stapylton 512K radar. They are both showing rain coming in from the West but the other point is we have 3 options in the South East corner for radars. Pretty good.
Marburg, Mt Stapylton and the Brisbane Airport.





If you are in the Brisbane Metropolitan area I find this site very good.

A cool day for Sunday as a Ridge along the East Coast continues to weaken over the next few days along with a deep Trough that is sitting over parts of Western and the Interior of Queensland. The trough is moving very slowly while bringing moisture from the tropics to the the South. It will also enhance rainfall within this area and also give us slightly cooler temperatures from the extensive cloud cover as can be seen by today’s forecast temperature of 23°C. For the rest of the week , temperatures should be around the 26°C. And maybe higher as the trough starts to move by the middle of the week.

The faithful old 4 day chart shows the deepening trough over Queensland and also the ridge (or High) over the Coastal areas that is weakening.



The WATL chart below shows the forecast amounts of rain over the next 8 days but also highlights the extent of cloud cover over the North of Australia.

Just having a look at the updated rain forecast for the next 4 days and some areas could see up to 100mm as per the WATL chart below. Tuesday and Wednesday will see the bigger falls as it tapers off to showers and warmer temperatures from Thursday onwards.

But I definitely have been enjoying the cooler temperatures. Monday morning saw the lowest minimum temperature of the year for Brisbane with a low of 18.9°C.

Edited by user Monday, 25 March 2024 7:13:38 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified