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SE QLD and NE NSW - Day to day Weather 2024
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Three Very Dangerous Storms now.  |
Colin Maitland. |
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The Northside of Brisbane should soon start to see storms arrive. One of the problems was the winds on the Northside were coming from the North and Northwest and not allowing moisture to feed into the storms. Were as to the South the winds where coming from the Northeast and feeding into the storms. I have highlighted this below. The latest sweeps on the radar have the winds now pushing from the Northeast.  |
Colin Maitland. |
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Just about to hit the Northside at 1730.  |
Colin Maitland. |
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Radar is really lighting up now. Mt Stapylton 128km radar image at 6.10pm  Stay safe out there.
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There is the possibility of storms again today and some being severe, but I am waiting for the soundings to come out. it may not be as widespread as yesterday if they do form. Below is GFS Li’s, Cape values and Sounding. But I would like to see maybe just a little bit more moisture in the DT and ET’s around the 900-700mb. But GFS often does this in underestimating the moisture levels, either to little or too much.    The uppers are actually a little colder than yesterdays by a few degrees so Hail could play a big part “if” storms develop.  And below is the water vapour image from this morning showing a bit of a dry area over the South East. But as I said before there is enough instability in the atmosphere and with the sun dragging moisture up it should add to the fuel.  Once again, these are my thoughts on the day. So please stay alert and listen for any warnings issued if storms do develop. Edited by user Thursday, 14 November 2024 8:15:35 AM(UTC)
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Colin Maitland. |
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A few small cells/showers trying to get going. Just a wait and see how it unfolds in the next 1 hour or so.  |
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Two warnings have been issued, one a blanket and the second for a severe cell.   |
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Latest STW  |
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The latest STW issued by BOM at 4pm:  The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:55 pm, severe thunderstorms likely to produce damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding were detected near Kooralbyn, Lake Somerset and Maroon Dam. These thunderstorms are moving towards the north to northeast. They are forecast to affect Boonah, Kilcoy and the area between Boonah and Beaudesert by 4:25 pm and Conondale, the area north of Woodford and the area west of Conondale by 4:55 pm. The 128km Mt Stapylton radar image from 4.15pm:  The storm between Boonah and Beaudesert looks quite nasty.
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STW for 16:45.   The Doppler shows that there is not as much moisture as yesterday.  |
Colin Maitland. |
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It seems like a widespread area is going to get another drenching tonight. The Mt Stapylton 256km radar image at 11.05pm: 
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Hi Aussie girl, Yeah we got got some good heavy showers overnight. It seems we are under the right atmospheric conditions and have a rain train coming in off the Bay.   It appears we have had more than the 9 mm’s that BoM had forecast which is great for the garden. I was reading an interesting article on 9 news and they were discussing the very unusual amount of storms and hail we are getting for November. But this storm Season reminds me of the 1984/85 storm season which really climaxed with the January 18 1985 Hailstorm. One of the biggest storms I have been caught in. Interesting reading and watching what little film there is on it as it was way before everyone was carrying a video and camera. ( Social media). But we had a lot of severe hail storms in November that year. https://www.9news.com.au...a-42e2-a034-a7d32fdfe61f |
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STW for heavy rain   |
Colin Maitland. |
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Some good falls showing up on the Brisbane Metropolitan Rainfall map.   Edited by user Saturday, 16 November 2024 1:54:06 PM(UTC)
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Colin Maitland. |
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Latest STW  Some heavy falls as can be seen in the red circles. 133mm. May be some flash flooding around as the ground would be close if not saturated.  |
Colin Maitland. |
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Originally Posted by: Colmait  Hi Aussie girl, Yeah we got got some good heavy showers overnight. It seems we are under the right atmospheric conditions and have a rain train coming in off the Bay..... I was reading an interesting article on 9 news and they were discussing the very unusual amount of storms and hail we are getting for November. But this storm Season reminds me of the 1984/85 storm season which really climaxed with the January 18 1985 Hailstorm. One of the biggest storms I have been caught in. Interesting reading and watching what little film there is on it as it was way before everyone was carrying a video and camera. ( Social media). But we had a lot of severe hail storms in November that year. https://www.9news.com.au...a-42e2-a034-a7d32fdfe61f These wet days seem relentless and I am wondering if it will end up leading to flooding. There are roads already closed due to flooding in the Lockyer Valley. Hopefully there is no repeat of that 84/85 storm season you mentioned Colmait. I did some searching on that Hailstorm of the 18th January 1985 and the first entry that came up is an interesting pdf from Geoscience Australia. A quote from the pdf states: " The most significant hailstorm in Brisbane was in January 1985, where a supercell caused extensive damage in two separate parts of the city over about a half hour period. The largest hail was approximately 63 mm in diameter (tennis ball size). Link: https://www.ga.gov.au/pdf/GA1489.pdfAnother interesting article about that storm says " The afternoon of Friday the 18th of January, 1985 is remembered by many Brisbane residents as the worst storm they had ever experienced." Link: https://www.ecn.net.au/~...sser/heritage/page6.htmlLets hope we don't get a repeat of that kind of storm. I remember a bad hailstorm in November 2014 that hit the Northside. The hail in that one was quite large and very jagged which made a mess of our car. It was quite scary how fast it seemed to all happen.
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There used to be better archives on Youtube but they seem to be disappearing. The hail was definitely bigger than golf alls over Taringa. But I had no camera on me to prove it. The FB link is the best below I can find for a flashbook news report. https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1Eph3zJYg8/And from the youtube. Eyewitness news. ?si=xm-B2KKgvVGA1FdJ Hopefully the links work. Edited by user Saturday, 16 November 2024 6:09:19 PM(UTC)
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Colin Maitland. |
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Thank you for the links to those videos Colmait. What an incredible mess that storm made. The Channel 7 video mentions that some of the hail was cricket ball sized which would have been very scary to experience.
It was interesting that there was actually a glass shortage in Brisbane for two years due to the extensive damage caused by that storm.
Hopefully we don't get a repeat of that type of storm here any time soon.
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Looks like we are going to have a reprieve from the heat on Tuesday as a cold pool makes its way into Southeast Queensland and NE NSW. Warm today, Sunday, and Monday then we should feel it cool down on Tuesday by at least 5-6° C. Going of GFS it should stick around until next Sunday at least. GFS for Monday at the surface temp.  And the cooler air moving in on Tuesday.  Edited by user Sunday, 17 November 2024 11:38:25 AM(UTC)
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Colin Maitland. |
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The rain and cool change is on its way.  |
Colin Maitland. |
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