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SE QLD and NE NSW - Day to day Weather 2024
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Originally Posted by: Colmait  The rain and cool change is on its way.
That band of rain seems to be very slow moving. Here is the radar image from 6 hours later than the one posted above by Colmait.  So another wet night in store for many of us. Looking forward to some cooler days this week though.
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Some decent rain totals just within the Brisbane Metropolitan area, since 09:00 Tuesday-/Wednesday.  For SEQ you can see where most of the rain fell.  There is some minor flooding and creeks are swollen. It has been nice soaking rain. The latest radar image of the system, it should clear away today but just have to wait and see what it decides it wants to do.  Edited by user Wednesday, 20 November 2024 6:19:26 AM(UTC)
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Colin Maitland. |
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A shower or two for Thursday 21 November. Just added the totals up for the last 7 days for our Suburb and we had 116 mm of rain. A good soaking.
The cooler weather should continue for a few more days before gradually heating up and hitting the 30°C + around Wednesday next week. At this stage, and it is quite a fair bit away, there is a small potential for some storm activity to coincide with the higher temperature on Wednesday. But it is too far out to and models will chop and change a fair bit until then.
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Another rainy day in store for us today with the chance of a thunderstorm. Todays forecast for the Brisbane area: 
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Back to slightly dryer conditions with the chances of showers during the week. Going of the modelling systems, not much is expected, between 5- 10mm. But that could change as well. I am only saying that as the models seem to be having a hard time forecasting events this year. The lead way is only a few days out with some confidence.
As I posted previously, Wednesday was shaping up to be a storm day but that died off after the next 2 runs. So that was within 24 hours. Now it is pointing to next Sunday, but once again that is a long way off to say for sure.
Enjoy the slightly cooler weather until it peaks on Wednesday and Thursday then backs off into the high 20’s°C again.
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Colin Maitland. |
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Originally Posted by: Colmait
Enjoy the slightly cooler weather until it peaks on Wednesday and Thursday then backs off into the high 20’s°C again.
It is certainly back to the high 20's today and the humidity is not very pleasant. The forecast for the Brisbane area for today is a max temp of 29°C with a 40% chance of showers. I am missing the cooler weather of last week and the weekend. We went for a drive up to Toowoomba on Saturday and we ended up having to put on our jackets at the picnic area as it was so cool 
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Storms are still a possibility for Sunday as I mentioned on my last post 5 days ago, but the modelling has backed off a bit. There is also a chance on Saturday right through to Tuesday, but the most likely scenario at this stage is for Thundery showers. They are just not as clear cut as previous years. So the best advice is to keep an eye toward the sky and listen for any forecast and warnings if storms build. The interesting part of the forecast is the amount of instability across much of Australia on Tuesday and Wednesday. Storms are forecast in many parts of these areas but it tapers off towards SEQLD. Below is the stormcast from GFS for Sunday along with the sounding which indicates are pretty moist atmosphere, possible showers /rain with embedded storms.   This is the stormcast for Wednesday. It indicates the bigger storms will be in the NT into the Southern interior of NSW and Northern Queensland.  Edited by user Friday, 29 November 2024 8:16:22 AM(UTC)
| Reason: Proof read the mistakes . Whoops. |
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Currently we are sitting right under a rain train above us. The rain should increase later in the day. Any storms that develop will most likely be for heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding.  |
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Latest STW from BoM  |
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It is a massive system sitting above the Eastern parts of Australia..  |
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Warnings are still out for heavy rain as at 17:48 Saturday afternoon. Where the heavy rain is falling is in the Catchment areas for the dams. So we could be in for an interesting Summer if the long range forecast are right. They are still working on the Somerset Dam wall and it can’t take the fall capacity of the Dam yet. Plus we would now have total saturation in regards to the ground for water. As a result we could see possible flooding once again. I really hope that this is not going to be the case. We had to head over to Bracken Ridge this afternoon and on the way back just after 17:00 my wife and I noticed that Youngs Crossing Road was closed and other routes were advised. This will be a result of the release of water in the North Pine Dam as they are working on that as well. Tomorrow is still shaping up to be a storm day and especially if this rain was to clear out a bit and we had some heating in the form of the sun for a couple of hours. Please keep a watch out for any warnings if storms develop and a eye to the sky as a heads up. It could be embedded clearing storms as well. The latest STW   |
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An extremely humid day as showers continue to clear. The sun is currently out over our area in the Pine Shire and you can feel the water being sucked up into the atmosphere. Looking at the latest observations for this South East of Queensland and you will notice high humidity, dew point’s sitting between 21-23°C and rising and the feel like or apparent temperatures 2-3°C above the actual temperatures. This morning sounding shows a saturated atmosphere but a lot of instability and no capping, so storms should fire off fairly easily with some having the possibility of becoming severe. At this point in time the TT’s or Total Totals are approximately 46 which at this stage is a good indicator that it shouldn’t be widespread severe storms. But that balloon was released at 07:00 at the airport and conditions down there are a little cooler. So the best plan of action is to keep an eye to the sky and eye and ear to the radio or media and look out for any warnings if storms do form. Below is the Brisbane sounding.  Edited by user Sunday, 1 December 2024 6:46:57 PM(UTC)
| Reason: Spelt dew as due, wrong due. |
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A few bolts of lightning in some of those showers clearing out to sea.  |
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The latest Storm Warnings and radar at 12:50 Heavy rain are in some of these cells or shower bands. 54.0 mm was recorded at Rosalie in the 30 minutes to 12:24 pm.    |
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Flash flooding would now be in play with some of these 30-60 minute rain totals. Latest STW  |
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Latest STW  |
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Thank you for all these very timely and informative weather updates Colmait.
It certainly was a very warm, humid and wet weekend with our umbrellas getting plenty of use over the last two days.
It will not be surprising if we do get more flooding with this rain day after day, with very heavy falls at times. We had to go up to Caboolture/Morayfield for some errands yesterday and we were surprised at the high level of the river and creeks already.
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We were noticing the same thing yesterday Aussie Girl with some of the creeks and causeways around our area in the Pine Shire including the actual Pine River. I have been watching a small cell just East of Allora and it is very slow moving and has dropped over 30mm in less than an hour. There is a chance for storms once again but just have to see how it pans out. The Sounding this morning has plenty of instability, the observations from BoM show higher feel like temperatures and high dew points. But the TT’s on the sounding only had a value of 42. But storms don’t always follow rules, in fact they break them. Technically TT’s of 44 and over are considered the minimum values for storms to develop. But there is a cell out there right now dropping some good rain as per the radar sweep and rainfall amounts on the Mt Stapylton Radar.    |
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