Yes you are absolutely correct RWM. I wish I had screenshot the 1st story that circulated as it stated Cairns. As my father-in-law grew up in Cairns and has seen frost at the Race Course so I assumed it was correct.

The updated story has now stated it was the Atherton Tablelands which recorded minus 2°C at the Caravan Park. My wife’s Grandparents lived on the Atherton Tablelands. We have done a few trips up but not since the late 1990’s. The Atherton Tablelands is not Cairns. We went up there one year and I got caught out with how cool the day was up at that elevation in July.

That is so annoying when a reckless story is posted on the news. The only thing is it was cold in Cairns at 7.9°C.

It is a beautiful sunny day over BR right now.

Just had a look at the QLD forecast and SEQ could see a very slight chance of a TC on Tuesday and Wednesday. It is very slight. My feelings right now would suggest a dry TC “IF” it can come together.

Having a look at the LI,s and Cape and forecast soundings, Wednesday looks like the best possible chance but it still looks slim.

Thank you for the heads up Colmait. I am still leaning the whole Cape, LI and convection thing, but I will have a look at the charts and see if I can come to the same conclusion. Any knowledge from you and others is greatly appreciated!

Hopefully after the fires this week and the continuing dry conditions, we do not have dry storms with next to no rain reaching the ground level. I guess this is a reminder for me to go and clean the gutters, because the gum trees have filled them up with the recent wind.

Wow. What a beautiful sky colour. Thank your for sharing.

That's the view from my front gate overlooking Wynnum North railway station.

I am officially celebrating today as the start of spring (on my calendar anyway) with a large bacon and eggs breakfast. 27 degrees is forecast today, and Crikey and Colmait both saying a slight chance of a storm on Wednesday.

The smoke from Thursday's fires near here has gone and the air feels clean again.

Happy days.

Edited by user Sunday, 25 August 2019 8:55:57 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Brain, hand Nd keyboard issues.

Thank you admin for inviting me here, so hello everyone. I might post my daily observations here also.

I run a website from Ferny Grove (north west Brisbane) presenting real time data collected from my weather station and other weather related data and info at fernygroveweather.com

Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 25 Aug 2019
Time: 9:25 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 7.5 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 23.7 C
Min Ground Temp: 5.5 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm
Temperature: 21.1 C
Relative Humidity: 48 %
Dew Point: 9.7 C
MSL Pressure: 1021 hPa
Wind Speed: 3kph - light air
Wind Direction: SE

Present Weather: No cloud development observed
Visibility: 40km or more - Excellent Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 24/8/19: Fine. Partly cloudy during morning with sc and cu easing later in the morning and clearing in the afternoon. Moderately low and stable dew point early rising to near average during the morning before falling from the mid morning to moderately low in the early afternoon. For the rest of the day the dew point was generally stable. Low daytime relative humidity. Some light NW winds in early hours before light S to SW in the early morning, E to SE in mid morning before E to NNE winds from late morning with some NW to NNE winds. Later in the afternoon winds were ESE to NE, becoming calm in the evening.

Great to see members chatting away. Good signs for a promising forum

Here is ACC r for wednesday at 4pm. Certainly looks ok. The only issue is the very dry air, low dew points , dry air we have had.

Wondering if this moisture can clear the dry out. It could be the difference between virga and a good storm.

As for storm potential analysis, l wil,leave that to the storm experts.
But quite a few ticks here in my book
some of my notes..

'wednesday 28th aug 2019
tropical dip in isobars .
Moisture infeed from the north coral sea
Likely increase in dew points
2 small low pressure eddies on the trough line
Max precip’ or storms most likely diurnal max in the afternoon. This is when ACC r has the strongest precip’ signal.
The extent of the signal is quite broad , running from west of the divide at Townsville
region right down to west of divide near Sydney. This signal extends to the coast.'
http://www.bom.gov.au/au...harts/viewer/index.shtml

The sounding for Brisbane has very slightly improved, but it is still marginal. There is only about 4 mm of rain at the most predicted for the storm so it has more of a chance of being a dry cell. That also posses problems as this could trigger a few fires. I am just hanging back a little just to wait for the next couple of updated runs. The latest sounding also shows the potential for the storm to basically choke itself pretty quickly. About the only thing that is being a constant in the scenario for any storm activity, if they can develop, is that they are most likely to be from 10:00 am to around 2:00 pm.
But once again I am waiting for the next 2 runs and updates to check the scenarios.

Hi guys, good to be here. Here are my thoughts regarding Wed/Thur:

Just doing the early morning model roundup and noticed that last night's EC run actually doesn't look too bad particularly for Thursday afternoon and evening? Not a great deal of instability as to be expected at this time of year but surprisingly there's enough moisture even in the lowers there to tap into ahead of the dryline (finally we get a little ridge set up across the Coral/Tasman Sea to provide this) so we could even see some surface based convection rather than just the high-based [censored]which looks more likely on Wednesday (though I think we will still see some surface based convection on Wednesday, just very isolated and probably dependent on cloud cover). ICON looks very similar to this as well.

Then there's GFS which looks very different for Thursday which has the upper low pushing NE too quickly, dragging the dryline and associated drier westerlies through to the coast by early Thursday morning.

Anyway, it's good to finally have something other than cold nights and clear skies to talk about.

Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 26 Aug 2019
Time: 7:50 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 8.9 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 25.2 C
Min Ground Temp: 6.4 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 13.1 C
Relative Humidity: 66 %
Dew Point: 6.9 C
MSL Pressure: 1019.9 hPa
Wind Speed: Calm
Wind Direction: Calm

Present Weather: No cloud development observed
Visibility: 40km or more - Excellent Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 25/8/19: Fine. Clear in the morning with cu clouds developing later in the morning and clearing in the afternoon. Variable temperature from late morning to mid afternoon. Stable and moderately low dew point early before rising to near average in the early morning and then fell in the mid morning close to average. The dew point was stable through to late afternoon and fell in the late evening to moderately low. Light and variable winds in the early morning before light E to SE from late morning. N to NE in winds from the late afternoon and N to NNW winds later in the evening.